Google's Gemini models, bolstered by the August 13 release of Gemini 3.7 Flash with notable gains on agentic and reasoning benchmarks, have driven trader consensus toward a near-certain second-place finish on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by August 31. Anthropic's Claude family currently anchors the top spot through sustained high scores in math-specific evaluations, leaving limited room for shifts from OpenAI, Alibaba, or others in the final week. The strong market-implied odds reflect verified leaderboard momentum and Google's consistent updates rather than speculation. A late surge from a competitor's new model release or unexpected scoring adjustment remains the main realistic path to altering the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 96%
OpenAI 2.3%
Anthropic 2.1%
Alibaba 1.7%
$80,637 Vol.
$80,637 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
96%
OpenAI
2%
Anthropic
2%
Alibaba
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 96%
OpenAI 2.3%
Anthropic 2.1%
Alibaba 1.7%
$80,637 Vol.
$80,637 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
$30,938 Vol.
96%
OpenAI
$3,199 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$9,292 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$15,097 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$2,517 Vol.
1%
Meta
$2,812 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$2,329 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,359 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,119 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,497 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,004 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$2,266 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$500 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$709 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$556 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$554 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,115 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$577 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$667 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini models, bolstered by the August 13 release of Gemini 3.7 Flash with notable gains on agentic and reasoning benchmarks, have driven trader consensus toward a near-certain second-place finish on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by August 31. Anthropic's Claude family currently anchors the top spot through sustained high scores in math-specific evaluations, leaving limited room for shifts from OpenAI, Alibaba, or others in the final week. The strong market-implied odds reflect verified leaderboard momentum and Google's consistent updates rather than speculation. A late surge from a competitor's new model release or unexpected scoring adjustment remains the main realistic path to altering the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ET
Volume
$80,637End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini models, bolstered by the August 13 release of Gemini 3.7 Flash with notable gains on agentic and reasoning benchmarks, have driven trader consensus toward a near-certain second-place finish on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by August 31. Anthropic's Claude family currently anchors the top spot through sustained high scores in math-specific evaluations, leaving limited room for shifts from OpenAI, Alibaba, or others in the final week. The strong market-implied odds reflect verified leaderboard momentum and Google's consistent updates rather than speculation. A late surge from a competitor's new model release or unexpected scoring adjustment remains the main realistic path to altering the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$80,637End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini models, bolstered by the August 13 release of Gemini 3.7 Flash with notable gains on agentic and reasoning benchmarks, have driven trader consensus toward a near-certain second-place finish on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by August 31. Anthropic's Claude family currently anchors the top spot through sustained high scores in math-specific evaluations, leaving limited room for shifts from OpenAI, Alibaba, or others in the final week. The strong market-implied odds reflect verified leaderboard momentum and Google's consistent updates rather than speculation. A late surge from a competitor's new model release or unexpected scoring adjustment remains the main realistic path to altering the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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