Trader consensus heavily favors no new Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, reflecting repeated delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro. Announced at Google I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model slipped to July and remains in partner testing as of late July, while Google has shipped multiple Flash variants including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13. This pattern of incremental lighter-model updates amid internal refinements and competitive pressure from other frontier large language models supports the strong implied probability. A surprise late-August launch remains possible if testing accelerates, though historical timelines and the absence of recent official signals make it unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by August 31 93.0%
August 27 2.4%
August 24 1.0%
August 30 1.0%
$301,256 Vol.
$301,256 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
August 23
1%
August 24
1%
August 25
1%
August 26
1%
August 27
2%
August 28
1%
August 29
1%
August 30
1%
August 31
1%
No release by August 31
93%
No release by August 31 93.0%
August 27 2.4%
August 24 1.0%
August 30 1.0%
$301,256 Vol.
$301,256 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
August 23
$3,423 Vol.
1%
August 24
$5,862 Vol.
1%
August 25
$6,846 Vol.
1%
August 26
$5,006 Vol.
1%
August 27
$9,658 Vol.
2%
August 28
$4,666 Vol.
1%
August 29
$6,668 Vol.
1%
August 30
$3,465 Vol.
1%
August 31
$9,012 Vol.
1%
No release by August 31
$73,377 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no new Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, reflecting repeated delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro. Announced at Google I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model slipped to July and remains in partner testing as of late July, while Google has shipped multiple Flash variants including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13. This pattern of incremental lighter-model updates amid internal refinements and competitive pressure from other frontier large language models supports the strong implied probability. A surprise late-August launch remains possible if testing accelerates, though historical timelines and the absence of recent official signals make it unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$301,256End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no new Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, reflecting repeated delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro. Announced at Google I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model slipped to July and remains in partner testing as of late July, while Google has shipped multiple Flash variants including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13. This pattern of incremental lighter-model updates amid internal refinements and competitive pressure from other frontier large language models supports the strong implied probability. A surprise late-August launch remains possible if testing accelerates, though historical timelines and the absence of recent official signals make it unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$301,256End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors no new Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, reflecting repeated delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro. Announced at Google I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model slipped to July and remains in partner testing as of late July, while Google has shipped multiple Flash variants including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13. This pattern of incremental lighter-model updates amid internal refinements and competitive pressure from other frontier large language models supports the strong implied probability. A surprise late-August launch remains possible if testing accelerates, though historical timelines and the absence of recent official signals make it unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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