Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5 have driven the strong trader consensus, with these large language models posting leading scores above 82 on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM's weighted agentic, coding, and reasoning evaluations as of late August 2026. These models outperform OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini variants on key metrics like SWE-bench and agentic workflows, reflecting sustained advances in capability and reliability. Market-implied odds reflect this gap, though further model updates or benchmark shifts before October could narrow the lead. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning against competitors' ongoing efforts to close the performance differential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 86%
OpenAI 5.3%
Google 4.1%
SpaceXAI 3.0%
$39,466 Vol.
$39,466 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
OpenAI
5%
4%
SpaceXAI
3%
Meta
2%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 5.3%
Google 4.1%
SpaceXAI 3.0%
$39,466 Vol.
$39,466 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$8,796 Vol.
86%
OpenAI
$1,741 Vol.
5%
$1,712 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$2,384 Vol.
3%
Meta
$1,825 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$3,532 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$1,398 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,299 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,342 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$1,226 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,285 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,805 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,767 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,429 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,219 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$907 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$498 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5 have driven the strong trader consensus, with these large language models posting leading scores above 82 on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM's weighted agentic, coding, and reasoning evaluations as of late August 2026. These models outperform OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini variants on key metrics like SWE-bench and agentic workflows, reflecting sustained advances in capability and reliability. Market-implied odds reflect this gap, though further model updates or benchmark shifts before October could narrow the lead. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning against competitors' ongoing efforts to close the performance differential.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$39,466End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5 have driven the strong trader consensus, with these large language models posting leading scores above 82 on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM's weighted agentic, coding, and reasoning evaluations as of late August 2026. These models outperform OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini variants on key metrics like SWE-bench and agentic workflows, reflecting sustained advances in capability and reliability. Market-implied odds reflect this gap, though further model updates or benchmark shifts before October could narrow the lead. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning against competitors' ongoing efforts to close the performance differential.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$39,466End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5 have driven the strong trader consensus, with these large language models posting leading scores above 82 on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM's weighted agentic, coding, and reasoning evaluations as of late August 2026. These models outperform OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini variants on key metrics like SWE-bench and agentic workflows, reflecting sustained advances in capability and reliability. Market-implied odds reflect this gap, though further model updates or benchmark shifts before October could narrow the lead. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning against competitors' ongoing efforts to close the performance differential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions