Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models, released in July 2026, currently top Text Arena leaderboards and lead math-specific benchmarks such as MathArena with scores above 84%, driven by strong performance in multi-step reasoning, agentic tasks, and complex problem-solving. This positioning reflects consistent outperformance over competitors in crowd-voted and verified evaluations, bolstered by Anthropic's focus on long-context handling and reliable mathematical inference. Trader consensus at 92% implied probability captures this edge, though a major OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol update, Google Gemini 3.x breakthrough, or new benchmark results by late September could narrow the gap if they demonstrate superior math capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 92%
OpenAI 7%
Google 2.9%
Z.ai <1%
$33,024 Vol.
$33,024 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
92%
OpenAI
7%
3%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 92%
OpenAI 7%
Google 2.9%
Z.ai <1%
$33,024 Vol.
$33,024 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$8,609 Vol.
92%
OpenAI
$10,114 Vol.
7%
$2,803 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$1,156 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$527 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,333 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$642 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$469 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$565 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$466 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$450 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$449 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$609 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models, released in July 2026, currently top Text Arena leaderboards and lead math-specific benchmarks such as MathArena with scores above 84%, driven by strong performance in multi-step reasoning, agentic tasks, and complex problem-solving. This positioning reflects consistent outperformance over competitors in crowd-voted and verified evaluations, bolstered by Anthropic's focus on long-context handling and reliable mathematical inference. Trader consensus at 92% implied probability captures this edge, though a major OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol update, Google Gemini 3.x breakthrough, or new benchmark results by late September could narrow the gap if they demonstrate superior math capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$33,024End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models, released in July 2026, currently top Text Arena leaderboards and lead math-specific benchmarks such as MathArena with scores above 84%, driven by strong performance in multi-step reasoning, agentic tasks, and complex problem-solving. This positioning reflects consistent outperformance over competitors in crowd-voted and verified evaluations, bolstered by Anthropic's focus on long-context handling and reliable mathematical inference. Trader consensus at 92% implied probability captures this edge, though a major OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol update, Google Gemini 3.x breakthrough, or new benchmark results by late September could narrow the gap if they demonstrate superior math capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$33,024End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models, released in July 2026, currently top Text Arena leaderboards and lead math-specific benchmarks such as MathArena with scores above 84%, driven by strong performance in multi-step reasoning, agentic tasks, and complex problem-solving. This positioning reflects consistent outperformance over competitors in crowd-voted and verified evaluations, bolstered by Anthropic's focus on long-context handling and reliable mathematical inference. Trader consensus at 92% implied probability captures this edge, though a major OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol update, Google Gemini 3.x breakthrough, or new benchmark results by late September could narrow the gap if they demonstrate superior math capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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