Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 66.5% for the best AI agent by end of October due to its focused push into production-grade agentic systems, including the general availability of Claude Cowork for independent task execution and the beta of Claude Managed Agents that accelerate enterprise deployment. Traders cite strong benchmark results on complex coding and multi-step workflows, plus Anthropic’s 2026 State of AI Agents Report highlighting real-world scaling at major firms, as key factors. OpenAI sits at 18% with its ChatGPT Agent and Operator features, while most other labs trail below 1% amid slower progress on reliable tool use and long-horizon autonomy. Upcoming model updates and developer conferences in the next two months remain the main swing factors before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 67%
OpenAI 14%
Alibaba 7.1%
Moonshot 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
67%
OpenAI
19%
Alibaba
7%
Moonshot
3%
1%
Baidu
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meituan
1%
Anthropic 67%
OpenAI 14%
Alibaba 7.1%
Moonshot 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,185 Vol.
67%
OpenAI
$257 Vol.
19%
Alibaba
$114 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$101 Vol.
3%
$76 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$92 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$124 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$106 Vol.
1%
Meta
$126 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$121 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$129 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$125 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$134 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$134 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$116 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$122 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$137 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$137 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 66.5% for the best AI agent by end of October due to its focused push into production-grade agentic systems, including the general availability of Claude Cowork for independent task execution and the beta of Claude Managed Agents that accelerate enterprise deployment. Traders cite strong benchmark results on complex coding and multi-step workflows, plus Anthropic’s 2026 State of AI Agents Report highlighting real-world scaling at major firms, as key factors. OpenAI sits at 18% with its ChatGPT Agent and Operator features, while most other labs trail below 1% amid slower progress on reliable tool use and long-horizon autonomy. Upcoming model updates and developer conferences in the next two months remain the main swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$7,334End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 66.5% for the best AI agent by end of October due to its focused push into production-grade agentic systems, including the general availability of Claude Cowork for independent task execution and the beta of Claude Managed Agents that accelerate enterprise deployment. Traders cite strong benchmark results on complex coding and multi-step workflows, plus Anthropic’s 2026 State of AI Agents Report highlighting real-world scaling at major firms, as key factors. OpenAI sits at 18% with its ChatGPT Agent and Operator features, while most other labs trail below 1% amid slower progress on reliable tool use and long-horizon autonomy. Upcoming model updates and developer conferences in the next two months remain the main swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$7,334End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 66.5% for the best AI agent by end of October due to its focused push into production-grade agentic systems, including the general availability of Claude Cowork for independent task execution and the beta of Claude Managed Agents that accelerate enterprise deployment. Traders cite strong benchmark results on complex coding and multi-step workflows, plus Anthropic’s 2026 State of AI Agents Report highlighting real-world scaling at major firms, as key factors. OpenAI sits at 18% with its ChatGPT Agent and Operator features, while most other labs trail below 1% amid slower progress on reliable tool use and long-horizon autonomy. Upcoming model updates and developer conferences in the next two months remain the main swing factors before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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