Moonshot leads trader sentiment at 29.5% implied probability for third-best AI agent lab by end-October, narrowly ahead of OpenAI at 24%, due to its July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight MoE model with 1M-token context that posted frontier results on agentic benchmarks for long-horizon coding, multimodal workflows, and reasoning. This performance, combined with aggressive pricing and developer ecosystem momentum, has elevated Moonshot relative to closed U.S. leaders. The broad 45-55% clustering across contenders reflects tight competition in tool-use capabilities, safety evaluations, and adoption signals, with key swing factors including upcoming model updates from Anthropic’s Claude family, OpenAI’s GPT releases, and Chinese labs like Alibaba and Zhipu. Resolution hinges on verifiable benchmark gains and production agent traction through October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 30%
OpenAI 24%
Alibaba 13%
Z.ai 12.3%
$11,326 Vol.
$11,326 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
30%
OpenAI
24%
Alibaba
13%
Z.ai
12%
Anthropic
11%
5%
SpaceXAI
4%
DeepSeek
4%
Xiaomi
2%
ByteDance
1%
Meta
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Microsoft
<1%
Moonshot 30%
OpenAI 24%
Alibaba 13%
Z.ai 12.3%
$11,326 Vol.
$11,326 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
$4,460 Vol.
30%
OpenAI
$2,318 Vol.
24%
Alibaba
$414 Vol.
13%
Z.ai
$213 Vol.
12%
Anthropic
$594 Vol.
11%
$290 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$497 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$279 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$252 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$336 Vol.
1%
Meta
$217 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$212 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$172 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$212 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$189 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$217 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$212 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$241 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot leads trader sentiment at 29.5% implied probability for third-best AI agent lab by end-October, narrowly ahead of OpenAI at 24%, due to its July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight MoE model with 1M-token context that posted frontier results on agentic benchmarks for long-horizon coding, multimodal workflows, and reasoning. This performance, combined with aggressive pricing and developer ecosystem momentum, has elevated Moonshot relative to closed U.S. leaders. The broad 45-55% clustering across contenders reflects tight competition in tool-use capabilities, safety evaluations, and adoption signals, with key swing factors including upcoming model updates from Anthropic’s Claude family, OpenAI’s GPT releases, and Chinese labs like Alibaba and Zhipu. Resolution hinges on verifiable benchmark gains and production agent traction through October.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$11,326End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot leads trader sentiment at 29.5% implied probability for third-best AI agent lab by end-October, narrowly ahead of OpenAI at 24%, due to its July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight MoE model with 1M-token context that posted frontier results on agentic benchmarks for long-horizon coding, multimodal workflows, and reasoning. This performance, combined with aggressive pricing and developer ecosystem momentum, has elevated Moonshot relative to closed U.S. leaders. The broad 45-55% clustering across contenders reflects tight competition in tool-use capabilities, safety evaluations, and adoption signals, with key swing factors including upcoming model updates from Anthropic’s Claude family, OpenAI’s GPT releases, and Chinese labs like Alibaba and Zhipu. Resolution hinges on verifiable benchmark gains and production agent traction through October.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$11,326End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot leads trader sentiment at 29.5% implied probability for third-best AI agent lab by end-October, narrowly ahead of OpenAI at 24%, due to its July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight MoE model with 1M-token context that posted frontier results on agentic benchmarks for long-horizon coding, multimodal workflows, and reasoning. This performance, combined with aggressive pricing and developer ecosystem momentum, has elevated Moonshot relative to closed U.S. leaders. The broad 45-55% clustering across contenders reflects tight competition in tool-use capabilities, safety evaluations, and adoption signals, with key swing factors including upcoming model updates from Anthropic’s Claude family, OpenAI’s GPT releases, and Chinese labs like Alibaba and Zhipu. Resolution hinges on verifiable benchmark gains and production agent traction through October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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