Rapid progress on Humanity's Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities, is driven by iterative gains in large language model reasoning and knowledge depth. As of mid-August 2026, leading frontier models from Anthropic, including variants of Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5, top independent leaderboards at 55–65% accuracy, reflecting targeted advances in adaptive reasoning and multi-step inference over earlier single-digit results. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, xAI, and open-weight labs accelerates releases of enhanced models, while benchmark saturation concerns and ongoing HLE revisions encourage further capability jumps before year-end. Key catalysts include upcoming model updates and scaling experiments expected through Q4 2026 that could push the highest score past 60%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$39,822 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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$39,822 Vol.
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$23,172 Vol.
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$6,524 Vol.
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$2,096 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Rapid progress on Humanity's Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities, is driven by iterative gains in large language model reasoning and knowledge depth. As of mid-August 2026, leading frontier models from Anthropic, including variants of Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5, top independent leaderboards at 55–65% accuracy, reflecting targeted advances in adaptive reasoning and multi-step inference over earlier single-digit results. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, xAI, and open-weight labs accelerates releases of enhanced models, while benchmark saturation concerns and ongoing HLE revisions encourage further capability jumps before year-end. Key catalysts include upcoming model updates and scaling experiments expected through Q4 2026 that could push the highest score past 60%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$39,822End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Rapid progress on Humanity's Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities, is driven by iterative gains in large language model reasoning and knowledge depth. As of mid-August 2026, leading frontier models from Anthropic, including variants of Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5, top independent leaderboards at 55–65% accuracy, reflecting targeted advances in adaptive reasoning and multi-step inference over earlier single-digit results. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, xAI, and open-weight labs accelerates releases of enhanced models, while benchmark saturation concerns and ongoing HLE revisions encourage further capability jumps before year-end. Key catalysts include upcoming model updates and scaling experiments expected through Q4 2026 that could push the highest score past 60%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$39,822End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid progress on Humanity's Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities, is driven by iterative gains in large language model reasoning and knowledge depth. As of mid-August 2026, leading frontier models from Anthropic, including variants of Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5, top independent leaderboards at 55–65% accuracy, reflecting targeted advances in adaptive reasoning and multi-step inference over earlier single-digit results. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, xAI, and open-weight labs accelerates releases of enhanced models, while benchmark saturation concerns and ongoing HLE revisions encourage further capability jumps before year-end. Key catalysts include upcoming model updates and scaling experiments expected through Q4 2026 that could push the highest score past 60%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
80%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
48%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
88%
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Frequently Asked Questions