Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow August 4 Democratic primary victory over Haley Stevens, which included strong performance in many urban and northern counties, has positioned the progressive nominee as the consensus favorite in Genesee County for the November general election against Republican Mike Rogers. Genesee, anchored by the Democratic-leaning Flint area, has historically favored Democratic Senate candidates, and recent statewide polling averages showing El-Sayed ahead by 1–5 points among likely voters have reinforced trader expectations that he will carry the county despite the overall toss-up nature of the open-seat race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters. Fundraising edges, turnout patterns among younger and minority voters, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions keep the county outcome closely aligned with broader battleground dynamics, though modest shifts in independent support or turnout could still alter the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
60%
Mike Rogers (R)
48%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
$148 Vol.
60%
Mike Rogers (R)
$66 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow August 4 Democratic primary victory over Haley Stevens, which included strong performance in many urban and northern counties, has positioned the progressive nominee as the consensus favorite in Genesee County for the November general election against Republican Mike Rogers. Genesee, anchored by the Democratic-leaning Flint area, has historically favored Democratic Senate candidates, and recent statewide polling averages showing El-Sayed ahead by 1–5 points among likely voters have reinforced trader expectations that he will carry the county despite the overall toss-up nature of the open-seat race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters. Fundraising edges, turnout patterns among younger and minority voters, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions keep the county outcome closely aligned with broader battleground dynamics, though modest shifts in independent support or turnout could still alter the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Volume
$214End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow August 4 Democratic primary victory over Haley Stevens, which included strong performance in many urban and northern counties, has positioned the progressive nominee as the consensus favorite in Genesee County for the November general election against Republican Mike Rogers. Genesee, anchored by the Democratic-leaning Flint area, has historically favored Democratic Senate candidates, and recent statewide polling averages showing El-Sayed ahead by 1–5 points among likely voters have reinforced trader expectations that he will carry the county despite the overall toss-up nature of the open-seat race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters. Fundraising edges, turnout patterns among younger and minority voters, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions keep the county outcome closely aligned with broader battleground dynamics, though modest shifts in independent support or turnout could still alter the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.
Volume
$214End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow August 4 Democratic primary victory over Haley Stevens, which included strong performance in many urban and northern counties, has positioned the progressive nominee as the consensus favorite in Genesee County for the November general election against Republican Mike Rogers. Genesee, anchored by the Democratic-leaning Flint area, has historically favored Democratic Senate candidates, and recent statewide polling averages showing El-Sayed ahead by 1–5 points among likely voters have reinforced trader expectations that he will carry the county despite the overall toss-up nature of the open-seat race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters. Fundraising edges, turnout patterns among younger and minority voters, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions keep the county outcome closely aligned with broader battleground dynamics, though modest shifts in independent support or turnout could still alter the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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