Texas's 27th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+10 based on recent presidential results and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from nonpartisan analysts. Incumbent Michael Cloud secured the GOP nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Democratic nominee Tanya Lloyd in the November general election. The district's established partisan composition and limited competitive history underpin the market's 91% implied probability for a Republican victory. A significant national Democratic swing, major candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout among opposing voters could narrow the margin, though the structural advantage makes such shifts unlikely to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-27 House Election Winner
TX-27 House Election Winner
$31,105 Vol.
$31,105 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
$31,105 Vol.
$31,105 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$20,139 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$10,966 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 27th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+10 based on recent presidential results and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from nonpartisan analysts. Incumbent Michael Cloud secured the GOP nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Democratic nominee Tanya Lloyd in the November general election. The district's established partisan composition and limited competitive history underpin the market's 91% implied probability for a Republican victory. A significant national Democratic swing, major candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout among opposing voters could narrow the margin, though the structural advantage makes such shifts unlikely to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$31,105End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 27th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+10 based on recent presidential results and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from nonpartisan analysts. Incumbent Michael Cloud secured the GOP nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Democratic nominee Tanya Lloyd in the November general election. The district's established partisan composition and limited competitive history underpin the market's 91% implied probability for a Republican victory. A significant national Democratic swing, major candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout among opposing voters could narrow the margin, though the structural advantage makes such shifts unlikely to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,105End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 27th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+10 based on recent presidential results and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from nonpartisan analysts. Incumbent Michael Cloud secured the GOP nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Democratic nominee Tanya Lloyd in the November general election. The district's established partisan composition and limited competitive history underpin the market's 91% implied probability for a Republican victory. A significant national Democratic swing, major candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout among opposing voters could narrow the margin, though the structural advantage makes such shifts unlikely to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions