The Michigan Senate general election features a toss-up contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers in an open seat, with recent polls showing the candidates essentially tied among likely voters. Record Democratic primary turnout exceeding 1.5 million ballots has signaled strong partisan engagement that could lift overall participation, while Republican primary dynamics and historical midterm patterns introduce offsetting uncertainty. Trader odds remain tightly clustered across mid-range turnout buckets because get-out-the-vote intensity, early and absentee voting trends, and any late shifts in enthusiasm among swing demographics could still push totals higher or lower than baseline expectations for the November contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichigan Senate Election: Turnout
Michigan Senate Election: Turnout
<4.2M 45%
5.2M-5.4M 45%
4.6M-4.8M 45%
5M-5.2M 44%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<4.2M
45%
4.2M-4.4M
26%
4.4M-4.6M
38%
4.6M-4.8M
45%
4.8M-5M
41%
5M-5.2M
44%
5.2M-5.4M
45%
5.4M-5.6M
39%
5.6M+
44%
<4.2M 45%
5.2M-5.4M 45%
4.6M-4.8M 45%
5M-5.2M 44%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<4.2M
$20 Vol.
45%
4.2M-4.4M
$20 Vol.
26%
4.4M-4.6M
$20 Vol.
38%
4.6M-4.8M
$20 Vol.
45%
4.8M-5M
$20 Vol.
41%
5M-5.2M
$20 Vol.
44%
5.2M-5.4M
$20 Vol.
45%
5.4M-5.6M
$20 Vol.
39%
5.6M+
$20 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Michigan Senate general election features a toss-up contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers in an open seat, with recent polls showing the candidates essentially tied among likely voters. Record Democratic primary turnout exceeding 1.5 million ballots has signaled strong partisan engagement that could lift overall participation, while Republican primary dynamics and historical midterm patterns introduce offsetting uncertainty. Trader odds remain tightly clustered across mid-range turnout buckets because get-out-the-vote intensity, early and absentee voting trends, and any late shifts in enthusiasm among swing demographics could still push totals higher or lower than baseline expectations for the November contest.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$180End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Michigan Senate general election features a toss-up contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers in an open seat, with recent polls showing the candidates essentially tied among likely voters. Record Democratic primary turnout exceeding 1.5 million ballots has signaled strong partisan engagement that could lift overall participation, while Republican primary dynamics and historical midterm patterns introduce offsetting uncertainty. Trader odds remain tightly clustered across mid-range turnout buckets because get-out-the-vote intensity, early and absentee voting trends, and any late shifts in enthusiasm among swing demographics could still push totals higher or lower than baseline expectations for the November contest.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$180End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Michigan Senate general election features a toss-up contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers in an open seat, with recent polls showing the candidates essentially tied among likely voters. Record Democratic primary turnout exceeding 1.5 million ballots has signaled strong partisan engagement that could lift overall participation, while Republican primary dynamics and historical midterm patterns introduce offsetting uncertainty. Trader odds remain tightly clustered across mid-range turnout buckets because get-out-the-vote intensity, early and absentee voting trends, and any late shifts in enthusiasm among swing demographics could still push totals higher or lower than baseline expectations for the November contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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