Anthropic’s June 9, 2026 release of Claude Fable 5—the first publicly available Mythos-class model with targeted safeguards routing risky queries to Opus—established the current benchmark and shifted trader focus to the timing and originator of the subsequent iteration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini models, combined with Mythos-class capabilities in long-context agentic tasks and cybersecurity benchmarks, continues to accelerate development cycles at frontier labs. Regulatory scrutiny over dual-use risks and export controls on the more powerful Claude Mythos 5 variant add uncertainty, while earnings calls, developer conferences, and any leaked internal timelines remain the key near-term catalysts that could move implied probabilities on the next release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Mythos-Class Model released by…?
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
$204,603 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
August 31
13%
September 9
27%
September 15
51%
September 30
64%
October 31
77%
$204,603 Vol.
August 31
$56,599 Vol.
13%
September 9
$726 Vol.
27%
September 15
$10,806 Vol.
51%
September 30
$94,399 Vol.
64%
October 31
$0 Vol.
77%
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s June 9, 2026 release of Claude Fable 5—the first publicly available Mythos-class model with targeted safeguards routing risky queries to Opus—established the current benchmark and shifted trader focus to the timing and originator of the subsequent iteration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini models, combined with Mythos-class capabilities in long-context agentic tasks and cybersecurity benchmarks, continues to accelerate development cycles at frontier labs. Regulatory scrutiny over dual-use risks and export controls on the more powerful Claude Mythos 5 variant add uncertainty, while earnings calls, developer conferences, and any leaked internal timelines remain the key near-term catalysts that could move implied probabilities on the next release.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$204,603End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s June 9, 2026 release of Claude Fable 5—the first publicly available Mythos-class model with targeted safeguards routing risky queries to Opus—established the current benchmark and shifted trader focus to the timing and originator of the subsequent iteration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini models, combined with Mythos-class capabilities in long-context agentic tasks and cybersecurity benchmarks, continues to accelerate development cycles at frontier labs. Regulatory scrutiny over dual-use risks and export controls on the more powerful Claude Mythos 5 variant add uncertainty, while earnings calls, developer conferences, and any leaked internal timelines remain the key near-term catalysts that could move implied probabilities on the next release.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$204,603End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s June 9, 2026 release of Claude Fable 5—the first publicly available Mythos-class model with targeted safeguards routing risky queries to Opus—established the current benchmark and shifted trader focus to the timing and originator of the subsequent iteration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini models, combined with Mythos-class capabilities in long-context agentic tasks and cybersecurity benchmarks, continues to accelerate development cycles at frontier labs. Regulatory scrutiny over dual-use risks and export controls on the more powerful Claude Mythos 5 variant add uncertainty, while earnings calls, developer conferences, and any leaked internal timelines remain the key near-term catalysts that could move implied probabilities on the next release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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