Traders assign a strong 79% implied probability to 8-10 days of Claude downtime in August because Anthropic’s status history shows a recurring pattern of short but distinct incidents clustered in the middle of the month. Multiple elevated-error events and degraded performance affecting claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models such as Opus 5 and Haiku 4.5 occurred on August 16 (major outage), 17–20 (degraded or partial), pushing the cumulative count into the favored range while leaving limited days remaining. Recent stability on August 21–23 and the absence of new major incidents support the view that the total will stay moderate rather than spike higher. Market sentiment reflects the “wisdom of crowds” pricing in Anthropic’s ongoing scaling challenges with frontier large language models without assuming systemic failure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 79%
11-13 8.4%
5-7 8.0%
14+ 3.2%
$28,459 Vol.
$28,459 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
5-7
9%
8-10
79%
11-13
8%
14+
3%
8-10 79%
11-13 8.4%
5-7 8.0%
14+ 3.2%
$28,459 Vol.
$28,459 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
5-7
$6,988 Vol.
9%
8-10
$5,750 Vol.
79%
11-13
$3,330 Vol.
8%
14+
$2,954 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Traders assign a strong 79% implied probability to 8-10 days of Claude downtime in August because Anthropic’s status history shows a recurring pattern of short but distinct incidents clustered in the middle of the month. Multiple elevated-error events and degraded performance affecting claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models such as Opus 5 and Haiku 4.5 occurred on August 16 (major outage), 17–20 (degraded or partial), pushing the cumulative count into the favored range while leaving limited days remaining. Recent stability on August 21–23 and the absence of new major incidents support the view that the total will stay moderate rather than spike higher. Market sentiment reflects the “wisdom of crowds” pricing in Anthropic’s ongoing scaling challenges with frontier large language models without assuming systemic failure.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$28,459End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Traders assign a strong 79% implied probability to 8-10 days of Claude downtime in August because Anthropic’s status history shows a recurring pattern of short but distinct incidents clustered in the middle of the month. Multiple elevated-error events and degraded performance affecting claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models such as Opus 5 and Haiku 4.5 occurred on August 16 (major outage), 17–20 (degraded or partial), pushing the cumulative count into the favored range while leaving limited days remaining. Recent stability on August 21–23 and the absence of new major incidents support the view that the total will stay moderate rather than spike higher. Market sentiment reflects the “wisdom of crowds” pricing in Anthropic’s ongoing scaling challenges with frontier large language models without assuming systemic failure.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$28,459End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a strong 79% implied probability to 8-10 days of Claude downtime in August because Anthropic’s status history shows a recurring pattern of short but distinct incidents clustered in the middle of the month. Multiple elevated-error events and degraded performance affecting claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models such as Opus 5 and Haiku 4.5 occurred on August 16 (major outage), 17–20 (degraded or partial), pushing the cumulative count into the favored range while leaving limited days remaining. Recent stability on August 21–23 and the absence of new major incidents support the view that the total will stay moderate rather than spike higher. Market sentiment reflects the “wisdom of crowds” pricing in Anthropic’s ongoing scaling challenges with frontier large language models without assuming systemic failure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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