Recent by-elections have been triggered by resignations across multiple parties, including Nigel Farage’s July 2026 exit from Clacton amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial interests (which resumed after his August 13 re-election), Josh Simons’ May resignation in Makerfield to facilitate Andy Burnham’s return, and Scottish National Party departures ahead of the June contests. Trader assessments of the next trigger focus on ongoing internal pressures, such as potential further Reform scrutiny, Labour’s post-leadership adjustments under Burnham, or Conservative and SNP efforts to refresh candidates in marginal seats. No scheduled vacancies exist as of late August 2026, so probabilities hinge on voluntary exits, health-related stand-downs, or procedural moves rather than fixed electoral timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
21%
December 31
59%
$4,747 Vol.
September 30
$2,469 Vol.
21%
December 31
$2,278 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent by-elections have been triggered by resignations across multiple parties, including Nigel Farage’s July 2026 exit from Clacton amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial interests (which resumed after his August 13 re-election), Josh Simons’ May resignation in Makerfield to facilitate Andy Burnham’s return, and Scottish National Party departures ahead of the June contests. Trader assessments of the next trigger focus on ongoing internal pressures, such as potential further Reform scrutiny, Labour’s post-leadership adjustments under Burnham, or Conservative and SNP efforts to refresh candidates in marginal seats. No scheduled vacancies exist as of late August 2026, so probabilities hinge on voluntary exits, health-related stand-downs, or procedural moves rather than fixed electoral timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$4,747End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent by-elections have been triggered by resignations across multiple parties, including Nigel Farage’s July 2026 exit from Clacton amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial interests (which resumed after his August 13 re-election), Josh Simons’ May resignation in Makerfield to facilitate Andy Burnham’s return, and Scottish National Party departures ahead of the June contests. Trader assessments of the next trigger focus on ongoing internal pressures, such as potential further Reform scrutiny, Labour’s post-leadership adjustments under Burnham, or Conservative and SNP efforts to refresh candidates in marginal seats. No scheduled vacancies exist as of late August 2026, so probabilities hinge on voluntary exits, health-related stand-downs, or procedural moves rather than fixed electoral timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$4,747End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent by-elections have been triggered by resignations across multiple parties, including Nigel Farage’s July 2026 exit from Clacton amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial interests (which resumed after his August 13 re-election), Josh Simons’ May resignation in Makerfield to facilitate Andy Burnham’s return, and Scottish National Party departures ahead of the June contests. Trader assessments of the next trigger focus on ongoing internal pressures, such as potential further Reform scrutiny, Labour’s post-leadership adjustments under Burnham, or Conservative and SNP efforts to refresh candidates in marginal seats. No scheduled vacancies exist as of late August 2026, so probabilities hinge on voluntary exits, health-related stand-downs, or procedural moves rather than fixed electoral timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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