OPEC's continued coordination among its remaining 11 members, including ongoing monthly OPEC+ production quota adjustments and meetings through mid-2026, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against dissolution this year. The UAE's May exit over long-standing quota disputes and capacity limits, amid Iran-related disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, represented the most significant recent fracture but followed precedents like Angola's 2023 departure; the group has adapted by sustaining output hikes and market-stability pledges among core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. Structural barriers to full dissolution include entrenched economic incentives for collective influence on global supply, even with a smaller footprint, and the absence of coordinated withdrawal signals from other members. Realistic shifts could stem from accelerated exits by quota-disgruntled nations or abrupt geopolitical realignments before year-end, though current institutional continuity makes such outcomes improbable within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
5% chance
$32,539 Vol.
$32,539 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
5% chance
$32,539 Vol.
$32,539 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's continued coordination among its remaining 11 members, including ongoing monthly OPEC+ production quota adjustments and meetings through mid-2026, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against dissolution this year. The UAE's May exit over long-standing quota disputes and capacity limits, amid Iran-related disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, represented the most significant recent fracture but followed precedents like Angola's 2023 departure; the group has adapted by sustaining output hikes and market-stability pledges among core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. Structural barriers to full dissolution include entrenched economic incentives for collective influence on global supply, even with a smaller footprint, and the absence of coordinated withdrawal signals from other members. Realistic shifts could stem from accelerated exits by quota-disgruntled nations or abrupt geopolitical realignments before year-end, though current institutional continuity makes such outcomes improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$32,539End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's continued coordination among its remaining 11 members, including ongoing monthly OPEC+ production quota adjustments and meetings through mid-2026, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against dissolution this year. The UAE's May exit over long-standing quota disputes and capacity limits, amid Iran-related disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, represented the most significant recent fracture but followed precedents like Angola's 2023 departure; the group has adapted by sustaining output hikes and market-stability pledges among core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. Structural barriers to full dissolution include entrenched economic incentives for collective influence on global supply, even with a smaller footprint, and the absence of coordinated withdrawal signals from other members. Realistic shifts could stem from accelerated exits by quota-disgruntled nations or abrupt geopolitical realignments before year-end, though current institutional continuity makes such outcomes improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,539End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC's continued coordination among its remaining 11 members, including ongoing monthly OPEC+ production quota adjustments and meetings through mid-2026, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against dissolution this year. The UAE's May exit over long-standing quota disputes and capacity limits, amid Iran-related disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, represented the most significant recent fracture but followed precedents like Angola's 2023 departure; the group has adapted by sustaining output hikes and market-stability pledges among core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. Structural barriers to full dissolution include entrenched economic incentives for collective influence on global supply, even with a smaller footprint, and the absence of coordinated withdrawal signals from other members. Realistic shifts could stem from accelerated exits by quota-disgruntled nations or abrupt geopolitical realignments before year-end, though current institutional continuity makes such outcomes improbable within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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