The UAE's May 2026 exit—the largest producer departure in years—stemmed from long-standing quota constraints on its expanding capacity, compounded by the February 2026 Iran conflict and related export disruptions, yet this has not triggered follow-on exits. Remaining OPEC+ core members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait and others) have maintained coordinated production adjustments through August 2026 meetings, including gradual unwinding of prior cuts, despite Iraq's June quota complaints. No additional announcements or confirmed plans for departures have emerged in the intervening months, reflecting trader consensus that the group's reduced membership has stabilized internal pressures for the balance of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
7% chance
$160,610 Vol.
$160,610 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$160,610 Vol.
$160,610 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 exit—the largest producer departure in years—stemmed from long-standing quota constraints on its expanding capacity, compounded by the February 2026 Iran conflict and related export disruptions, yet this has not triggered follow-on exits. Remaining OPEC+ core members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait and others) have maintained coordinated production adjustments through August 2026 meetings, including gradual unwinding of prior cuts, despite Iraq's June quota complaints. No additional announcements or confirmed plans for departures have emerged in the intervening months, reflecting trader consensus that the group's reduced membership has stabilized internal pressures for the balance of the year.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$160,610End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 exit—the largest producer departure in years—stemmed from long-standing quota constraints on its expanding capacity, compounded by the February 2026 Iran conflict and related export disruptions, yet this has not triggered follow-on exits. Remaining OPEC+ core members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait and others) have maintained coordinated production adjustments through August 2026 meetings, including gradual unwinding of prior cuts, despite Iraq's June quota complaints. No additional announcements or confirmed plans for departures have emerged in the intervening months, reflecting trader consensus that the group's reduced membership has stabilized internal pressures for the balance of the year.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$160,610End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's May 2026 exit—the largest producer departure in years—stemmed from long-standing quota constraints on its expanding capacity, compounded by the February 2026 Iran conflict and related export disruptions, yet this has not triggered follow-on exits. Remaining OPEC+ core members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait and others) have maintained coordinated production adjustments through August 2026 meetings, including gradual unwinding of prior cuts, despite Iraq's June quota complaints. No additional announcements or confirmed plans for departures have emerged in the intervening months, reflecting trader consensus that the group's reduced membership has stabilized internal pressures for the balance of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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