Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated strikes on military targets at Kharg Island while preserving its oil terminals, have driven Polymarket pricing. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, or about 1.5 million barrels per day, making any shift in control a direct threat to Tehran’s hard-currency revenues and a potential catalyst for Brent crude spikes above $100. Despite naval blockades and Hormuz disruptions that idled loadings for weeks, satellite data confirm Iranian operations persist, with partial reactivation at the western terminal in mid-August. Traders assign low implied probabilities to loss of control by late 2026 because no occupation or handover has occurred, though escalation risks remain tied to FOMC-sensitive oil volatility and any breakthrough in stalled peace talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$105,981 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
3%
$105,981 Vol.
August 31
$36,632 Vol.
1%
September 30
$69,348 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated strikes on military targets at Kharg Island while preserving its oil terminals, have driven Polymarket pricing. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, or about 1.5 million barrels per day, making any shift in control a direct threat to Tehran’s hard-currency revenues and a potential catalyst for Brent crude spikes above $100. Despite naval blockades and Hormuz disruptions that idled loadings for weeks, satellite data confirm Iranian operations persist, with partial reactivation at the western terminal in mid-August. Traders assign low implied probabilities to loss of control by late 2026 because no occupation or handover has occurred, though escalation risks remain tied to FOMC-sensitive oil volatility and any breakthrough in stalled peace talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$105,981End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated strikes on military targets at Kharg Island while preserving its oil terminals, have driven Polymarket pricing. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, or about 1.5 million barrels per day, making any shift in control a direct threat to Tehran’s hard-currency revenues and a potential catalyst for Brent crude spikes above $100. Despite naval blockades and Hormuz disruptions that idled loadings for weeks, satellite data confirm Iranian operations persist, with partial reactivation at the western terminal in mid-August. Traders assign low implied probabilities to loss of control by late 2026 because no occupation or handover has occurred, though escalation risks remain tied to FOMC-sensitive oil volatility and any breakthrough in stalled peace talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,981End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated strikes on military targets at Kharg Island while preserving its oil terminals, have driven Polymarket pricing. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, or about 1.5 million barrels per day, making any shift in control a direct threat to Tehran’s hard-currency revenues and a potential catalyst for Brent crude spikes above $100. Despite naval blockades and Hormuz disruptions that idled loadings for weeks, satellite data confirm Iranian operations persist, with partial reactivation at the western terminal in mid-August. Traders assign low implied probabilities to loss of control by late 2026 because no occupation or handover has occurred, though escalation risks remain tied to FOMC-sensitive oil volatility and any breakthrough in stalled peace talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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