No active withdrawal proceedings, scheduled referendums, or Article 50 notifications exist among the 27 EU member states as of mid-2026, reinforcing trader consensus on a "No" outcome at 96.7%. The United Kingdom completed its exit in 2020 via a multi-year process, and subsequent populist critiques in countries such as Hungary and Italy have remained rhetorical without legislative triggers or constitutional steps. Ongoing enlargement discussions and internal budget negotiations have instead emphasized institutional stability. Even an immediate notification would face substantial procedural barriers, including domestic ratification and negotiations, within the narrow window to December 31, 2026. An unforeseen crisis could theoretically accelerate developments, though historical timelines indicate such a shift remains improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAny country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
3% chance
$160,997 Vol.
$160,997 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$160,997 Vol.
$160,997 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No active withdrawal proceedings, scheduled referendums, or Article 50 notifications exist among the 27 EU member states as of mid-2026, reinforcing trader consensus on a "No" outcome at 96.7%. The United Kingdom completed its exit in 2020 via a multi-year process, and subsequent populist critiques in countries such as Hungary and Italy have remained rhetorical without legislative triggers or constitutional steps. Ongoing enlargement discussions and internal budget negotiations have instead emphasized institutional stability. Even an immediate notification would face substantial procedural barriers, including domestic ratification and negotiations, within the narrow window to December 31, 2026. An unforeseen crisis could theoretically accelerate developments, though historical timelines indicate such a shift remains improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$160,997End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No active withdrawal proceedings, scheduled referendums, or Article 50 notifications exist among the 27 EU member states as of mid-2026, reinforcing trader consensus on a "No" outcome at 96.7%. The United Kingdom completed its exit in 2020 via a multi-year process, and subsequent populist critiques in countries such as Hungary and Italy have remained rhetorical without legislative triggers or constitutional steps. Ongoing enlargement discussions and internal budget negotiations have instead emphasized institutional stability. Even an immediate notification would face substantial procedural barriers, including domestic ratification and negotiations, within the narrow window to December 31, 2026. An unforeseen crisis could theoretically accelerate developments, though historical timelines indicate such a shift remains improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$160,997End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No active withdrawal proceedings, scheduled referendums, or Article 50 notifications exist among the 27 EU member states as of mid-2026, reinforcing trader consensus on a "No" outcome at 96.7%. The United Kingdom completed its exit in 2020 via a multi-year process, and subsequent populist critiques in countries such as Hungary and Italy have remained rhetorical without legislative triggers or constitutional steps. Ongoing enlargement discussions and internal budget negotiations have instead emphasized institutional stability. Even an immediate notification would face substantial procedural barriers, including domestic ratification and negotiations, within the narrow window to December 31, 2026. An unforeseen crisis could theoretically accelerate developments, though historical timelines indicate such a shift remains improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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