Pete Hegseth has served as Secretary of Defense (now titled Secretary of War) since his January 2025 confirmation without interruption, maintaining an active schedule of budget testimony, force posture reviews, and departmental oversight into August 2026. Recent developments include ongoing correspondence with senators on election security matters and reported internal tensions with service secretaries, yet none have produced public statements, Senate actions, or White House signals pointing to removal or resignation by the end of the month. With the resolution window closing in roughly one week, traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” based on the lack of imminent catalysts. A sudden health event, major scandal, or presidential directive remains theoretically possible but would require rapid execution in the brief remaining period.