Pierre Poilievre remains Conservative leader following his decisive 87.4 percent victory in the mandatory January 2026 leadership review after the party's 2025 election loss. He retained his parliamentary seat in a subsequent by-election and continues official duties as opposition leader, including caucus meetings and public statements through mid-2026. No organized leadership challenge or scheduled party convention has emerged to trigger a review before year-end, despite isolated MP defections and media reports of internal polling concerns. Traders assign an 87 percent probability he stays in place through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of structural mechanisms or viable alternatives capable of forcing an early exit in the current timeline.