SpaceX has achieved multiple Super Heavy booster tower catches and advanced Starship V3 heat shield performance, with Flight 13 in July 2026 delivering the first intact upper-stage ocean recovery and precise landing data that Musk described as solving the reentry challenge. However, the upper stage has yet to attempt a tower catch, with the first such effort now targeted for a few months after mid-August 2026 and the initial ship reflight projected for late 2026 or early 2027. Full reusability before 2027 requires both stages to complete catch-and-refly cycles plus supporting milestones like orbital refueling under real conditions, a timeline traders view as tight given regulatory, technical, and cadence hurdles that have repeatedly shifted prior targets. Recent V3 flight cadence gains and booster reuse progress support the current market-implied odds favoring "No" at 59.5%.