SpaceX’s Starship program has delivered steady incremental gains toward reusability in 2026, but traders view full operational reuse of both the Super Heavy booster and upper-stage ship before the end of the year as unlikely. Flight 13 in July produced the first intact V3 ship recovery after a controlled Indian Ocean splashdown and yielded valuable heat-shield data, while earlier V3 flights demonstrated repeated booster tower catches. However, the ship catch attempt has slipped from late August plans to “a few months” out, and Elon Musk’s most recent guidance targets the first ship reflight only at the end of 2026 or early 2027. Ongoing ocean recovery logistics for Flight 13, regulatory timelines for Flight 14, and the absence of any demonstrated rapid turnaround cycle continue to anchor the 61% probability on “No.”