Recent polling shows the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton locked in a statistical tie or narrow Talarico edge among likely voters, rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters ahead of the November 3 general election. Tarrant County, a key suburban battleground around Fort Worth, has trended more competitive in recent cycles, with Talarico drawing stronger support from independents and Hispanic voters while Paxton benefits from Republican consolidation after defeating incumbent John Cornyn in the primary. Talarico’s substantial fundraising lead and early advertising edge have contributed to trader consensus favoring his county performance, though the statewide contest remains sensitive to turnout, late shifts among suburban voters, and any final-week developments that could alter margins in this closely divided area.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
60%
Ken Paxton (R)
35%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
$929 Vol.
60%
Ken Paxton (R)
$127 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.Recent polling shows the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton locked in a statistical tie or narrow Talarico edge among likely voters, rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters ahead of the November 3 general election. Tarrant County, a key suburban battleground around Fort Worth, has trended more competitive in recent cycles, with Talarico drawing stronger support from independents and Hispanic voters while Paxton benefits from Republican consolidation after defeating incumbent John Cornyn in the primary. Talarico’s substantial fundraising lead and early advertising edge have contributed to trader consensus favoring his county performance, though the statewide contest remains sensitive to turnout, late shifts among suburban voters, and any final-week developments that could alter margins in this closely divided area.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,056End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.Recent polling shows the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton locked in a statistical tie or narrow Talarico edge among likely voters, rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters ahead of the November 3 general election. Tarrant County, a key suburban battleground around Fort Worth, has trended more competitive in recent cycles, with Talarico drawing stronger support from independents and Hispanic voters while Paxton benefits from Republican consolidation after defeating incumbent John Cornyn in the primary. Talarico’s substantial fundraising lead and early advertising edge have contributed to trader consensus favoring his county performance, though the statewide contest remains sensitive to turnout, late shifts among suburban voters, and any final-week developments that could alter margins in this closely divided area.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
Volume
$1,056End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton locked in a statistical tie or narrow Talarico edge among likely voters, rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters ahead of the November 3 general election. Tarrant County, a key suburban battleground around Fort Worth, has trended more competitive in recent cycles, with Talarico drawing stronger support from independents and Hispanic voters while Paxton benefits from Republican consolidation after defeating incumbent John Cornyn in the primary. Talarico’s substantial fundraising lead and early advertising edge have contributed to trader consensus favoring his county performance, though the statewide contest remains sensitive to turnout, late shifts among suburban voters, and any final-week developments that could alter margins in this closely divided area.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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