Recent US sanctions targeting Iranian oil networks, shipping, gold, and secondary actors have intensified pressure on the rial, driving free-market rates above 2 million per USD amid constrained exports and a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing conflict since February, combined with domestic inflation near 66% and limited central bank reserves, sustains volatility, while June's temporary sanctions waivers under the US-Iran MOU have not stabilized flows. With roughly one month until end-September resolution, the evenly distributed probabilities across rate bands reflect uncertainty over whether additional measures, diplomatic mediation, or shifts in oil revenue will emerge before then. Any escalation in sanctions enforcement or progress toward broader relief could quickly widen gaps among the bins.