**Trader consensus on the Argentina official USD exchange rate (ARS per USD) at end-2026 heavily favors levels of 1600+, reflecting the ongoing inflation-linked crawling band regime, BCRA reserve accumulation exceeding $10 billion year-to-date, and market-implied depreciation aligned with ~30% expected 2026 inflation.** The band, adjusted monthly to lagged CPI, has supported orderly FX trading near 1480–1500 in mid-2026 while allowing gradual peso weakening below the ~1850 ceiling. Key supports include primary fiscal surpluses, robust energy/agro/mining exports, and REM consensus projecting the rate near 1652 by December. Risks such as 2027 debt maturities and pre-electoral pressures could influence outcomes, but current data and policy continuity underpin the elevated probabilities for 1600+ while keeping sub-1450 scenarios at lower implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1600.00+ 65%
1500.00–1549.99 18.8%
<1250.00 18.3%
1550.00–1599.99 10.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
18%
1250.00–1299.99
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
10%
1450.00–1499.99
14%
1500.00–1549.99
11%
1550.00–1599.99
11%
1600.00+
65%
1600.00+ 65%
1500.00–1549.99 18.8%
<1250.00 18.3%
1550.00–1599.99 10.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
$536 Vol.
18%
1250.00–1299.99
$819 Vol.
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
$682 Vol.
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
$743 Vol.
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
$1,239 Vol.
10%
1450.00–1499.99
$1,264 Vol.
14%
1500.00–1549.99
$1,223 Vol.
11%
1550.00–1599.99
$694 Vol.
11%
1600.00+
$1,902 Vol.
65%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Trader consensus on the Argentina official USD exchange rate (ARS per USD) at end-2026 heavily favors levels of 1600+, reflecting the ongoing inflation-linked crawling band regime, BCRA reserve accumulation exceeding $10 billion year-to-date, and market-implied depreciation aligned with ~30% expected 2026 inflation.**
The band, adjusted monthly to lagged CPI, has supported orderly FX trading near 1480–1500 in mid-2026 while allowing gradual peso weakening below the ~1850 ceiling. Key supports include primary fiscal surpluses, robust energy/agro/mining exports, and REM consensus projecting the rate near 1652 by December. Risks such as 2027 debt maturities and pre-electoral pressures could influence outcomes, but current data and policy continuity underpin the elevated probabilities for 1600+ while keeping sub-1450 scenarios at lower implied odds.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,103End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Trader consensus on the Argentina official USD exchange rate (ARS per USD) at end-2026 heavily favors levels of 1600+, reflecting the ongoing inflation-linked crawling band regime, BCRA reserve accumulation exceeding $10 billion year-to-date, and market-implied depreciation aligned with ~30% expected 2026 inflation.**
The band, adjusted monthly to lagged CPI, has supported orderly FX trading near 1480–1500 in mid-2026 while allowing gradual peso weakening below the ~1850 ceiling. Key supports include primary fiscal surpluses, robust energy/agro/mining exports, and REM consensus projecting the rate near 1652 by December. Risks such as 2027 debt maturities and pre-electoral pressures could influence outcomes, but current data and policy continuity underpin the elevated probabilities for 1600+ while keeping sub-1450 scenarios at lower implied odds.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$9,103End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on the Argentina official USD exchange rate (ARS per USD) at end-2026 heavily favors levels of 1600+, reflecting the ongoing inflation-linked crawling band regime, BCRA reserve accumulation exceeding $10 billion year-to-date, and market-implied depreciation aligned with ~30% expected 2026 inflation.** The band, adjusted monthly to lagged CPI, has supported orderly FX trading near 1480–1500 in mid-2026 while allowing gradual peso weakening below the ~1850 ceiling. Key supports include primary fiscal surpluses, robust energy/agro/mining exports, and REM consensus projecting the rate near 1652 by December. Risks such as 2027 debt maturities and pre-electoral pressures could influence outcomes, but current data and policy continuity underpin the elevated probabilities for 1600+ while keeping sub-1450 scenarios at lower implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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