Trader sentiment on Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 reflects the BCRA’s managed crawl within a widening band amid ongoing disinflation. With the spot rate near 1,499 and consensus forecasts from the REM and LatinFocus centering on 1,650–1,652, the closely matched 41% and 32.5% probabilities on the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,700 brackets highlight uncertainty over the pace of depreciation relative to the projected 29–30% 2026 inflation. Key drivers include sustained fiscal surpluses, reserve accumulation exceeding IMF targets, and monetary prudence that has kept monthly inflation near 2%, though higher energy prices and any reacceleration in activity could push the rate toward the upper end of the 1,600s by December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,662 Vol.
$21,662 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<1600.00
44%
1600.00–1699.99
33%
1700.00–1799.99
8%
1800.00–1899.99
8%
1900.00–1999.99
1%
2000.00+
3%
$21,662 Vol.
$21,662 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<1600.00
$2,450 Vol.
44%
1600.00–1699.99
$2,015 Vol.
33%
1700.00–1799.99
$2,198 Vol.
8%
1800.00–1899.99
$1,687 Vol.
8%
1900.00–1999.99
$11,566 Vol.
1%
2000.00+
$1,747 Vol.
3%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader sentiment on Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 reflects the BCRA’s managed crawl within a widening band amid ongoing disinflation. With the spot rate near 1,499 and consensus forecasts from the REM and LatinFocus centering on 1,650–1,652, the closely matched 41% and 32.5% probabilities on the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,700 brackets highlight uncertainty over the pace of depreciation relative to the projected 29–30% 2026 inflation. Key drivers include sustained fiscal surpluses, reserve accumulation exceeding IMF targets, and monetary prudence that has kept monthly inflation near 2%, though higher energy prices and any reacceleration in activity could push the rate toward the upper end of the 1,600s by December.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,662End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader sentiment on Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 reflects the BCRA’s managed crawl within a widening band amid ongoing disinflation. With the spot rate near 1,499 and consensus forecasts from the REM and LatinFocus centering on 1,650–1,652, the closely matched 41% and 32.5% probabilities on the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,700 brackets highlight uncertainty over the pace of depreciation relative to the projected 29–30% 2026 inflation. Key drivers include sustained fiscal surpluses, reserve accumulation exceeding IMF targets, and monetary prudence that has kept monthly inflation near 2%, though higher energy prices and any reacceleration in activity could push the rate toward the upper end of the 1,600s by December.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$21,662End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 reflects the BCRA’s managed crawl within a widening band amid ongoing disinflation. With the spot rate near 1,499 and consensus forecasts from the REM and LatinFocus centering on 1,650–1,652, the closely matched 41% and 32.5% probabilities on the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,700 brackets highlight uncertainty over the pace of depreciation relative to the projected 29–30% 2026 inflation. Key drivers include sustained fiscal surpluses, reserve accumulation exceeding IMF targets, and monetary prudence that has kept monthly inflation near 2%, though higher energy prices and any reacceleration in activity could push the rate toward the upper end of the 1,600s by December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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