The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging Israeli violations of the Genocide Convention remains in its preliminary written-pleadings phase, with the court’s May 2026 order setting South Africa’s reply for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029. No merits hearing or judgment is scheduled before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity but has not pursued or alleged genocide charges. Multiple states have filed interventions, yet procedural timelines and jurisdictional limits continue to extend resolution well beyond 2027. Traders therefore assign an 85 % probability that no international court will deliver a genocide finding by the deadline, reflecting the slow pace of interstate litigation and the absence of any accelerated track.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
$99,357 Vol.
$99,357 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
16% chance
$99,357 Vol.
$99,357 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging Israeli violations of the Genocide Convention remains in its preliminary written-pleadings phase, with the court’s May 2026 order setting South Africa’s reply for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029. No merits hearing or judgment is scheduled before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity but has not pursued or alleged genocide charges. Multiple states have filed interventions, yet procedural timelines and jurisdictional limits continue to extend resolution well beyond 2027. Traders therefore assign an 85 % probability that no international court will deliver a genocide finding by the deadline, reflecting the slow pace of interstate litigation and the absence of any accelerated track.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$99,357End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging Israeli violations of the Genocide Convention remains in its preliminary written-pleadings phase, with the court’s May 2026 order setting South Africa’s reply for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029. No merits hearing or judgment is scheduled before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity but has not pursued or alleged genocide charges. Multiple states have filed interventions, yet procedural timelines and jurisdictional limits continue to extend resolution well beyond 2027. Traders therefore assign an 85 % probability that no international court will deliver a genocide finding by the deadline, reflecting the slow pace of interstate litigation and the absence of any accelerated track.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,357End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging Israeli violations of the Genocide Convention remains in its preliminary written-pleadings phase, with the court’s May 2026 order setting South Africa’s reply for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029. No merits hearing or judgment is scheduled before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity but has not pursued or alleged genocide charges. Multiple states have filed interventions, yet procedural timelines and jurisdictional limits continue to extend resolution well beyond 2027. Traders therefore assign an 85 % probability that no international court will deliver a genocide finding by the deadline, reflecting the slow pace of interstate litigation and the absence of any accelerated track.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions