Israel maintains a buffer zone inside Gaza along the expanding “Yellow Line,” conducting targeted airstrikes and limited incursions against Hamas operatives while rejecting phased withdrawal until full disarmament occurs. US-mediated talks led by Jared Kushner have produced a Board of Peace roadmap for Hamas weapons handover, yet Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on complete demilitarization before any territorial concessions, stalling implementation and keeping reconstruction on hold. Ongoing low-intensity strikes since the October 2025 ceasefire have killed over 1,200 Palestinians without triggering large-scale ground mobilization, and traders assess the risk of a major offensive—defined as more than 1,000 troops entering currently uncontrolled areas—remains low through year-end amid diplomatic pressure and domestic political considerations ahead of scheduled elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$752,051 Vol.
Oct 30, 2025
December 31
12%
$752,051 Vol.
December 31
$102,420 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains a buffer zone inside Gaza along the expanding “Yellow Line,” conducting targeted airstrikes and limited incursions against Hamas operatives while rejecting phased withdrawal until full disarmament occurs. US-mediated talks led by Jared Kushner have produced a Board of Peace roadmap for Hamas weapons handover, yet Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on complete demilitarization before any territorial concessions, stalling implementation and keeping reconstruction on hold. Ongoing low-intensity strikes since the October 2025 ceasefire have killed over 1,200 Palestinians without triggering large-scale ground mobilization, and traders assess the risk of a major offensive—defined as more than 1,000 troops entering currently uncontrolled areas—remains low through year-end amid diplomatic pressure and domestic political considerations ahead of scheduled elections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$752,051End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains a buffer zone inside Gaza along the expanding “Yellow Line,” conducting targeted airstrikes and limited incursions against Hamas operatives while rejecting phased withdrawal until full disarmament occurs. US-mediated talks led by Jared Kushner have produced a Board of Peace roadmap for Hamas weapons handover, yet Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on complete demilitarization before any territorial concessions, stalling implementation and keeping reconstruction on hold. Ongoing low-intensity strikes since the October 2025 ceasefire have killed over 1,200 Palestinians without triggering large-scale ground mobilization, and traders assess the risk of a major offensive—defined as more than 1,000 troops entering currently uncontrolled areas—remains low through year-end amid diplomatic pressure and domestic political considerations ahead of scheduled elections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$752,051End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel maintains a buffer zone inside Gaza along the expanding “Yellow Line,” conducting targeted airstrikes and limited incursions against Hamas operatives while rejecting phased withdrawal until full disarmament occurs. US-mediated talks led by Jared Kushner have produced a Board of Peace roadmap for Hamas weapons handover, yet Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on complete demilitarization before any territorial concessions, stalling implementation and keeping reconstruction on hold. Ongoing low-intensity strikes since the October 2025 ceasefire have killed over 1,200 Palestinians without triggering large-scale ground mobilization, and traders assess the risk of a major offensive—defined as more than 1,000 troops entering currently uncontrolled areas—remains low through year-end amid diplomatic pressure and domestic political considerations ahead of scheduled elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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