The 25th Knesset completed its full term and dissolved in July 2026 after passing final legislation, triggering elections for the 26th Knesset on October 27. The current government operates in caretaker status with limited authority. Polls show the pro-Netanyahu and opposition blocs remain closely divided near or below the 61-seat majority threshold, pointing to extended post-election coalition talks involving multiple parties. In Israel, a new government is seated only after the Knesset passes a formal vote of confidence on its basic policy guidelines and ministerial lineup. Historical patterns indicate these negotiations frequently span weeks or months, especially in fragmented parliaments. With roughly six weeks between the expected Knesset swearing-in in mid-November and December 31, traders assign a 60.5% probability to "No," reflecting the structural barriers and timeline pressures that often delay government formation beyond year-end. No-confidence motions against the outgoing government were routinely defeated earlier in 2026, but the market centers on the incoming parliament.