Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition bloc consistently projected at 49–52 seats and the Zionist opposition bloc (led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party alongside Naftali Bennett’s Together, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats) at 57–66 seats. These figures place the opposition near or at the 61-seat threshold required for a majority under proportional representation, while smaller parties hover near the 3.25% electoral threshold and Arab parties hold roughly 10–11 seats. The outgoing Knesset completed its full term without early dissolution, and the bloc-level arithmetic in August surveys indicates one side can likely assemble a coalition without prolonged deadlock. This pattern underpins trader consensus that a hung parliament—defined as failure to form a government before another election—is unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 26, 2026
22% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition bloc consistently projected at 49–52 seats and the Zionist opposition bloc (led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party alongside Naftali Bennett’s Together, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats) at 57–66 seats. These figures place the opposition near or at the 61-seat threshold required for a majority under proportional representation, while smaller parties hover near the 3.25% electoral threshold and Arab parties hold roughly 10–11 seats.
The outgoing Knesset completed its full term without early dissolution, and the bloc-level arithmetic in August surveys indicates one side can likely assemble a coalition without prolonged deadlock. This pattern underpins trader consensus that a hung parliament—defined as failure to form a government before another election—is unlikely.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,702End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition bloc consistently projected at 49–52 seats and the Zionist opposition bloc (led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party alongside Naftali Bennett’s Together, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats) at 57–66 seats. These figures place the opposition near or at the 61-seat threshold required for a majority under proportional representation, while smaller parties hover near the 3.25% electoral threshold and Arab parties hold roughly 10–11 seats.
The outgoing Knesset completed its full term without early dissolution, and the bloc-level arithmetic in August surveys indicates one side can likely assemble a coalition without prolonged deadlock. This pattern underpins trader consensus that a hung parliament—defined as failure to form a government before another election—is unlikely.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,702End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition bloc consistently projected at 49–52 seats and the Zionist opposition bloc (led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party alongside Naftali Bennett’s Together, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats) at 57–66 seats. These figures place the opposition near or at the 61-seat threshold required for a majority under proportional representation, while smaller parties hover near the 3.25% electoral threshold and Arab parties hold roughly 10–11 seats. The outgoing Knesset completed its full term without early dissolution, and the bloc-level arithmetic in August surveys indicates one side can likely assemble a coalition without prolonged deadlock. This pattern underpins trader consensus that a hung parliament—defined as failure to form a government before another election—is unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions