Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36), with Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party frequently leading or tying at 23–26 seats and other opposition lists such as B'Yachad adding pressure. This consistent shortfall across multiple surveys reflects sustained voter shifts toward centrist and alternative right-leaning options amid ongoing security challenges and coalition dynamics. Likud's mid-August primaries produced only marginal or mixed post-primary gains in subsequent polling, failing to reverse the downward trend. Trader consensus on a seat loss therefore aligns with the repeated polling evidence showing structural erosion of the party's current Knesset representation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated94% chance
$13,696 Vol.
$13,696 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
94% chance
$13,696 Vol.
$13,696 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36), with Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party frequently leading or tying at 23–26 seats and other opposition lists such as B'Yachad adding pressure. This consistent shortfall across multiple surveys reflects sustained voter shifts toward centrist and alternative right-leaning options amid ongoing security challenges and coalition dynamics. Likud's mid-August primaries produced only marginal or mixed post-primary gains in subsequent polling, failing to reverse the downward trend. Trader consensus on a seat loss therefore aligns with the repeated polling evidence showing structural erosion of the party's current Knesset representation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$13,696End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36), with Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party frequently leading or tying at 23–26 seats and other opposition lists such as B'Yachad adding pressure. This consistent shortfall across multiple surveys reflects sustained voter shifts toward centrist and alternative right-leaning options amid ongoing security challenges and coalition dynamics. Likud's mid-August primaries produced only marginal or mixed post-primary gains in subsequent polling, failing to reverse the downward trend. Trader consensus on a seat loss therefore aligns with the repeated polling evidence showing structural erosion of the party's current Knesset representation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$13,696End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36), with Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party frequently leading or tying at 23–26 seats and other opposition lists such as B'Yachad adding pressure. This consistent shortfall across multiple surveys reflects sustained voter shifts toward centrist and alternative right-leaning options amid ongoing security challenges and coalition dynamics. Likud's mid-August primaries produced only marginal or mixed post-primary gains in subsequent polling, failing to reverse the downward trend. Trader consensus on a seat loss therefore aligns with the repeated polling evidence showing structural erosion of the party's current Knesset representation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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