**Smotrich’s recent public rejection of a renewed alliance with Ben Gvir is the dominant factor behind the 77% implied probability that the two will not share a party list in Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset elections.** Religious Zionism (Smotrich) and Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) ran jointly in 2022 under Netanyahu’s brokerage and secured 14 seats combined, but current polling shows Religious Zionism hovering near or below the 3.25–3.5% electoral threshold while Otzma Yehudit polls stronger. In mid-August 2026, Smotrich told The Jerusalem Post that his party would not pursue alliances and did not view Ben Gvir as a partner for a joint run, stating confidence in running independently. Netanyahu has continued pressing for a merger to safeguard right-wing seats, yet Smotrich’s stance has held. Traders appear to weigh this explicit refusal more heavily than earlier pressure or historical precedent, viewing a solo Religious Zionism list as the more likely outcome absent a late reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated21% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
21% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich’s recent public rejection of a renewed alliance with Ben Gvir is the dominant factor behind the 77% implied probability that the two will not share a party list in Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset elections.**
Religious Zionism (Smotrich) and Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) ran jointly in 2022 under Netanyahu’s brokerage and secured 14 seats combined, but current polling shows Religious Zionism hovering near or below the 3.25–3.5% electoral threshold while Otzma Yehudit polls stronger. In mid-August 2026, Smotrich told The Jerusalem Post that his party would not pursue alliances and did not view Ben Gvir as a partner for a joint run, stating confidence in running independently. Netanyahu has continued pressing for a merger to safeguard right-wing seats, yet Smotrich’s stance has held.
Traders appear to weigh this explicit refusal more heavily than earlier pressure or historical precedent, viewing a solo Religious Zionism list as the more likely outcome absent a late reversal.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
Volume
$1,385End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich’s recent public rejection of a renewed alliance with Ben Gvir is the dominant factor behind the 77% implied probability that the two will not share a party list in Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset elections.**
Religious Zionism (Smotrich) and Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) ran jointly in 2022 under Netanyahu’s brokerage and secured 14 seats combined, but current polling shows Religious Zionism hovering near or below the 3.25–3.5% electoral threshold while Otzma Yehudit polls stronger. In mid-August 2026, Smotrich told The Jerusalem Post that his party would not pursue alliances and did not view Ben Gvir as a partner for a joint run, stating confidence in running independently. Netanyahu has continued pressing for a merger to safeguard right-wing seats, yet Smotrich’s stance has held.
Traders appear to weigh this explicit refusal more heavily than earlier pressure or historical precedent, viewing a solo Religious Zionism list as the more likely outcome absent a late reversal.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$1,385End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Smotrich’s recent public rejection of a renewed alliance with Ben Gvir is the dominant factor behind the 77% implied probability that the two will not share a party list in Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset elections.** Religious Zionism (Smotrich) and Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) ran jointly in 2022 under Netanyahu’s brokerage and secured 14 seats combined, but current polling shows Religious Zionism hovering near or below the 3.25–3.5% electoral threshold while Otzma Yehudit polls stronger. In mid-August 2026, Smotrich told The Jerusalem Post that his party would not pursue alliances and did not view Ben Gvir as a partner for a joint run, stating confidence in running independently. Netanyahu has continued pressing for a merger to safeguard right-wing seats, yet Smotrich’s stance has held. Traders appear to weigh this explicit refusal more heavily than earlier pressure or historical precedent, viewing a solo Religious Zionism list as the more likely outcome absent a late reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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