**Elevated sea surface temperatures driven by a strong El Niño event are the dominant factor behind the 66.5% market-implied probability that Hawaii will reach NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026.** Alert Level 1 corresponds to accumulated thermal stress (typically Degree Heating Weeks of 4 or greater) where significant coral bleaching becomes likely. A July 2026 NOAA Coral Reef Watch forecast, cited in local reporting, projected a bleaching warning by August and Alert Level 1 by October under an El Niño scenario with an 81% chance of becoming very strong by late 2026. This builds on the fourth global coral bleaching event, which produced widespread heat stress through 2025, and follows March 2026 Kona low storms that already stressed reefs via freshwater runoff, sediment, and salinity changes. Current satellite monitoring from NOAA’s 5 km products shows Hawaii in a period of seasonal warming, with model outlooks indicating continued or increasing stress through fall and winter. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of these conditions materializing against typical forecast uncertainty in El Niño strength, steering patterns, and any late-season cooling. Upcoming weekly NOAA Coral Reef Watch updates and four-month outlooks will provide key signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?
Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?
67% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
67% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".**Elevated sea surface temperatures driven by a strong El Niño event are the dominant factor behind the 66.5% market-implied probability that Hawaii will reach NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026.**
Alert Level 1 corresponds to accumulated thermal stress (typically Degree Heating Weeks of 4 or greater) where significant coral bleaching becomes likely. A July 2026 NOAA Coral Reef Watch forecast, cited in local reporting, projected a bleaching warning by August and Alert Level 1 by October under an El Niño scenario with an 81% chance of becoming very strong by late 2026. This builds on the fourth global coral bleaching event, which produced widespread heat stress through 2025, and follows March 2026 Kona low storms that already stressed reefs via freshwater runoff, sediment, and salinity changes.
Current satellite monitoring from NOAA’s 5 km products shows Hawaii in a period of seasonal warming, with model outlooks indicating continued or increasing stress through fall and winter. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of these conditions materializing against typical forecast uncertainty in El Niño strength, steering patterns, and any late-season cooling. Upcoming weekly NOAA Coral Reef Watch updates and four-month outlooks will provide key signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Volume
$791End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.phpResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".**Elevated sea surface temperatures driven by a strong El Niño event are the dominant factor behind the 66.5% market-implied probability that Hawaii will reach NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026.**
Alert Level 1 corresponds to accumulated thermal stress (typically Degree Heating Weeks of 4 or greater) where significant coral bleaching becomes likely. A July 2026 NOAA Coral Reef Watch forecast, cited in local reporting, projected a bleaching warning by August and Alert Level 1 by October under an El Niño scenario with an 81% chance of becoming very strong by late 2026. This builds on the fourth global coral bleaching event, which produced widespread heat stress through 2025, and follows March 2026 Kona low storms that already stressed reefs via freshwater runoff, sediment, and salinity changes.
Current satellite monitoring from NOAA’s 5 km products shows Hawaii in a period of seasonal warming, with model outlooks indicating continued or increasing stress through fall and winter. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of these conditions materializing against typical forecast uncertainty in El Niño strength, steering patterns, and any late-season cooling. Upcoming weekly NOAA Coral Reef Watch updates and four-month outlooks will provide key signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$791End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.phpResolver
0x65070BE91...**Elevated sea surface temperatures driven by a strong El Niño event are the dominant factor behind the 66.5% market-implied probability that Hawaii will reach NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026.** Alert Level 1 corresponds to accumulated thermal stress (typically Degree Heating Weeks of 4 or greater) where significant coral bleaching becomes likely. A July 2026 NOAA Coral Reef Watch forecast, cited in local reporting, projected a bleaching warning by August and Alert Level 1 by October under an El Niño scenario with an 81% chance of becoming very strong by late 2026. This builds on the fourth global coral bleaching event, which produced widespread heat stress through 2025, and follows March 2026 Kona low storms that already stressed reefs via freshwater runoff, sediment, and salinity changes. Current satellite monitoring from NOAA’s 5 km products shows Hawaii in a period of seasonal warming, with model outlooks indicating continued or increasing stress through fall and winter. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of these conditions materializing against typical forecast uncertainty in El Niño strength, steering patterns, and any late-season cooling. Upcoming weekly NOAA Coral Reef Watch updates and four-month outlooks will provide key signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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