Current mid-August observations from NSIDC, JAXA, and OSI SAF place Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million sq km, the 9th lowest on record and consistent with spring model projections centering near 4.5 million sq km for the September minimum. Persistent thin ice from the record-low 2026 winter maximum, combined with above-average melt rates through July in the Kara, Siberian, and Atlantic marginal seas, supports the market's leading 4.4-4.6 million sq km outcome at 36.9% implied probability. A recent slowdown in daily losses introduces modest uncertainty around intensification potential, yet climatological trends and ensemble forecasts favor outcomes below 4.8 million sq km over higher bins as the melt season peaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 38.7%
4.6-4.8m sq km 21.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.4%
<4m sq km 9%
$68,616 Vol.
$68,616 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
9%
4.0-4.2m sq km
12%
4.2-4.4m sq km
15%
4.4-4.6m sq km
39%
4.6-4.8m sq km
22%
4.8-5m sq km
10%
5m+ sq km
5%
4.4-4.6m sq km 38.7%
4.6-4.8m sq km 21.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.4%
<4m sq km 9%
$68,616 Vol.
$68,616 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,880 Vol.
9%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,611 Vol.
12%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,116 Vol.
15%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,128 Vol.
39%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,828 Vol.
22%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,555 Vol.
10%
5m+ sq km
$14,498 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current mid-August observations from NSIDC, JAXA, and OSI SAF place Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million sq km, the 9th lowest on record and consistent with spring model projections centering near 4.5 million sq km for the September minimum. Persistent thin ice from the record-low 2026 winter maximum, combined with above-average melt rates through July in the Kara, Siberian, and Atlantic marginal seas, supports the market's leading 4.4-4.6 million sq km outcome at 36.9% implied probability. A recent slowdown in daily losses introduces modest uncertainty around intensification potential, yet climatological trends and ensemble forecasts favor outcomes below 4.8 million sq km over higher bins as the melt season peaks.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$68,616End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current mid-August observations from NSIDC, JAXA, and OSI SAF place Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million sq km, the 9th lowest on record and consistent with spring model projections centering near 4.5 million sq km for the September minimum. Persistent thin ice from the record-low 2026 winter maximum, combined with above-average melt rates through July in the Kara, Siberian, and Atlantic marginal seas, supports the market's leading 4.4-4.6 million sq km outcome at 36.9% implied probability. A recent slowdown in daily losses introduces modest uncertainty around intensification potential, yet climatological trends and ensemble forecasts favor outcomes below 4.8 million sq km over higher bins as the melt season peaks.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,616End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current mid-August observations from NSIDC, JAXA, and OSI SAF place Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million sq km, the 9th lowest on record and consistent with spring model projections centering near 4.5 million sq km for the September minimum. Persistent thin ice from the record-low 2026 winter maximum, combined with above-average melt rates through July in the Kara, Siberian, and Atlantic marginal seas, supports the market's leading 4.4-4.6 million sq km outcome at 36.9% implied probability. A recent slowdown in daily losses introduces modest uncertainty around intensification potential, yet climatological trends and ensemble forecasts favor outcomes below 4.8 million sq km over higher bins as the melt season peaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions