Forecast models from MetService and the Met Office indicate a daily maximum near 14–15°C for Wellington on August 24, driven by northwesterly flow that is advecting milder maritime air ahead of a weak front. This places the outcome slightly above the long-term August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C while remaining well within typical winter variability for the region, where Cook Strait and local orography can produce 1–2°C differences across observation sites. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA assign near-average to above-average temperatures roughly equal likelihood through the period, and no updated model runs or significant synoptic shifts have altered guidance in the past day. Traders therefore anchor implied probabilities on the narrow 14–16°C consensus range, with limited upside potential from brief clearing or sheltering effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
15°C 64%
16°C 21%
14°C 13%
17°C 6%
NEW
$26,203 Vol.
NEW
$26,203 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
13%
15°C
64%
16°C
21%
17°C
6%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 64%
16°C 21%
14°C 13%
17°C 6%
NEW
$26,203 Vol.
NEW
$26,203 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
$364 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$376 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$344 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$572 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,833 Vol.
2%
14°C
$4,208 Vol.
13%
15°C
$6,858 Vol.
64%
16°C
$5,169 Vol.
21%
17°C
$4,011 Vol.
6%
18°C
$2,083 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$385 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and the Met Office indicate a daily maximum near 14–15°C for Wellington on August 24, driven by northwesterly flow that is advecting milder maritime air ahead of a weak front. This places the outcome slightly above the long-term August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C while remaining well within typical winter variability for the region, where Cook Strait and local orography can produce 1–2°C differences across observation sites. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA assign near-average to above-average temperatures roughly equal likelihood through the period, and no updated model runs or significant synoptic shifts have altered guidance in the past day. Traders therefore anchor implied probabilities on the narrow 14–16°C consensus range, with limited upside potential from brief clearing or sheltering effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$26,203End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and the Met Office indicate a daily maximum near 14–15°C for Wellington on August 24, driven by northwesterly flow that is advecting milder maritime air ahead of a weak front. This places the outcome slightly above the long-term August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C while remaining well within typical winter variability for the region, where Cook Strait and local orography can produce 1–2°C differences across observation sites. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA assign near-average to above-average temperatures roughly equal likelihood through the period, and no updated model runs or significant synoptic shifts have altered guidance in the past day. Traders therefore anchor implied probabilities on the narrow 14–16°C consensus range, with limited upside potential from brief clearing or sheltering effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,203End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from MetService and the Met Office indicate a daily maximum near 14–15°C for Wellington on August 24, driven by northwesterly flow that is advecting milder maritime air ahead of a weak front. This places the outcome slightly above the long-term August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C while remaining well within typical winter variability for the region, where Cook Strait and local orography can produce 1–2°C differences across observation sites. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA assign near-average to above-average temperatures roughly equal likelihood through the period, and no updated model runs or significant synoptic shifts have altered guidance in the past day. Traders therefore anchor implied probabilities on the narrow 14–16°C consensus range, with limited upside potential from brief clearing or sheltering effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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