Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to fine conditions with northwesterly winds on August 25, supporting daytime maxima near 14–15 °C in Wellington, consistent with late-winter climatology where average highs reach about 12–13 °C. NIWA’s August–October outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near- or above-average temperatures amid developing El Niño influences that can enhance warmer northerly flows. Forecast model consensus remains tight around this range, yet traders assign the highest implied probability (52.5 %) to a 16 °C peak, reflecting modest upside potential from variable wind direction, localized warming, or small revisions in official guidance before resolution. Lower outcomes at 15 °C and 17 °C capture the remaining spread, while probabilities below 14 °C or above 18 °C stay minimal given current steering patterns and lack of strong cold-air advection signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
16°C 53%
17°C 22%
15°C 21%
18°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
21%
16°C
53%
17°C
22%
18°C
5%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 53%
17°C 22%
15°C 21%
18°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
$239 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$252 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$588 Vol.
3%
15°C
$1,657 Vol.
21%
16°C
$800 Vol.
53%
17°C
$708 Vol.
22%
18°C
$527 Vol.
5%
19°C
$5 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$703 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to fine conditions with northwesterly winds on August 25, supporting daytime maxima near 14–15 °C in Wellington, consistent with late-winter climatology where average highs reach about 12–13 °C. NIWA’s August–October outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near- or above-average temperatures amid developing El Niño influences that can enhance warmer northerly flows. Forecast model consensus remains tight around this range, yet traders assign the highest implied probability (52.5 %) to a 16 °C peak, reflecting modest upside potential from variable wind direction, localized warming, or small revisions in official guidance before resolution. Lower outcomes at 15 °C and 17 °C capture the remaining spread, while probabilities below 14 °C or above 18 °C stay minimal given current steering patterns and lack of strong cold-air advection signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,957End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to fine conditions with northwesterly winds on August 25, supporting daytime maxima near 14–15 °C in Wellington, consistent with late-winter climatology where average highs reach about 12–13 °C. NIWA’s August–October outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near- or above-average temperatures amid developing El Niño influences that can enhance warmer northerly flows. Forecast model consensus remains tight around this range, yet traders assign the highest implied probability (52.5 %) to a 16 °C peak, reflecting modest upside potential from variable wind direction, localized warming, or small revisions in official guidance before resolution. Lower outcomes at 15 °C and 17 °C capture the remaining spread, while probabilities below 14 °C or above 18 °C stay minimal given current steering patterns and lack of strong cold-air advection signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,957End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to fine conditions with northwesterly winds on August 25, supporting daytime maxima near 14–15 °C in Wellington, consistent with late-winter climatology where average highs reach about 12–13 °C. NIWA’s August–October outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near- or above-average temperatures amid developing El Niño influences that can enhance warmer northerly flows. Forecast model consensus remains tight around this range, yet traders assign the highest implied probability (52.5 %) to a 16 °C peak, reflecting modest upside potential from variable wind direction, localized warming, or small revisions in official guidance before resolution. Lower outcomes at 15 °C and 17 °C capture the remaining spread, while probabilities below 14 °C or above 18 °C stay minimal given current steering patterns and lack of strong cold-air advection signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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