Recent forecast model runs highlight variable monsoon rainfall and cloud cover as the dominant factors shaping trader consensus around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 25 maximum. Persistent southwest monsoon flow and potential tropical disturbances introduce uncertainty in daytime insolation and evaporative cooling, with ensembles showing modest spreads in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Historical August climatology places typical peaks near 31°C, yet urban heat-island effects and rapid shifts in convective activity can alter outcomes by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting near-term PAGASA and global model updates, which will refine land-sea breeze and precipitation timing before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 25?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 25?
31°C 32%
32°C 28%
30°C 17%
33°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
6%
30°C
17%
31°C
32%
32°C
28%
33°C
15%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 32%
32°C 28%
30°C 17%
33°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
$142 Vol.
1%
27°C
$188 Vol.
3%
28°C
$5 Vol.
4%
29°C
$20 Vol.
6%
30°C
$155 Vol.
17%
31°C
$29 Vol.
32%
32°C
$74 Vol.
28%
33°C
$0 Vol.
15%
34°C
$13 Vol.
2%
35°C
$5 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$100 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs highlight variable monsoon rainfall and cloud cover as the dominant factors shaping trader consensus around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 25 maximum. Persistent southwest monsoon flow and potential tropical disturbances introduce uncertainty in daytime insolation and evaporative cooling, with ensembles showing modest spreads in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Historical August climatology places typical peaks near 31°C, yet urban heat-island effects and rapid shifts in convective activity can alter outcomes by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting near-term PAGASA and global model updates, which will refine land-sea breeze and precipitation timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$731End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs highlight variable monsoon rainfall and cloud cover as the dominant factors shaping trader consensus around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 25 maximum. Persistent southwest monsoon flow and potential tropical disturbances introduce uncertainty in daytime insolation and evaporative cooling, with ensembles showing modest spreads in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Historical August climatology places typical peaks near 31°C, yet urban heat-island effects and rapid shifts in convective activity can alter outcomes by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting near-term PAGASA and global model updates, which will refine land-sea breeze and precipitation timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$731End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs highlight variable monsoon rainfall and cloud cover as the dominant factors shaping trader consensus around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 25 maximum. Persistent southwest monsoon flow and potential tropical disturbances introduce uncertainty in daytime insolation and evaporative cooling, with ensembles showing modest spreads in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Historical August climatology places typical peaks near 31°C, yet urban heat-island effects and rapid shifts in convective activity can alter outcomes by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting near-term PAGASA and global model updates, which will refine land-sea breeze and precipitation timing before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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