**Trader sentiment for Qingdao’s August 25 maximum temperature centers on model consensus for a warm summer day with highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C.** Short-range forecasts from sources including BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate a high near 30 °C under sunny or partly cloudy skies with moderate southerly breezes, while some extended 30-day outlooks project peaks of 33–34 °C amid typical late-August coastal conditions. Qingdao’s August climatology features average daily highs of 28–31 °C (82–88 °F), with potential for brief excursions above 32 °C when high pressure suppresses cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating over the Yellow Sea region. Current conditions on August 23 show temperatures already reaching 31–32 °C, supporting the market’s tilt toward 33 °C (41 % implied probability) as the leading outcome, followed by 34 °C (23 %) and 32 °C (22.5 %). No major synoptic systems or rapid model shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours, so probabilities remain anchored to the latest deterministic and ensemble runs, with limited upside risk for 35 °C+ given the short forecast horizon and typical sea-breeze moderation. Updated model guidance expected over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any probability adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 25?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 25?
33°C 42%
32°C 27%
34°C 23%
31°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
10%
32°C
27%
33°C
42%
34°C
23%
35°C or higher
2%
33°C 42%
32°C 27%
34°C 23%
31°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$6 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$45 Vol.
1%
29°C
$65 Vol.
2%
30°C
$317 Vol.
3%
31°C
$16 Vol.
10%
32°C
$399 Vol.
27%
33°C
$176 Vol.
42%
34°C
$529 Vol.
23%
35°C or higher
$884 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Qingdao’s August 25 maximum temperature centers on model consensus for a warm summer day with highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C.** Short-range forecasts from sources including BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate a high near 30 °C under sunny or partly cloudy skies with moderate southerly breezes, while some extended 30-day outlooks project peaks of 33–34 °C amid typical late-August coastal conditions.
Qingdao’s August climatology features average daily highs of 28–31 °C (82–88 °F), with potential for brief excursions above 32 °C when high pressure suppresses cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating over the Yellow Sea region. Current conditions on August 23 show temperatures already reaching 31–32 °C, supporting the market’s tilt toward 33 °C (41 % implied probability) as the leading outcome, followed by 34 °C (23 %) and 32 °C (22.5 %).
No major synoptic systems or rapid model shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours, so probabilities remain anchored to the latest deterministic and ensemble runs, with limited upside risk for 35 °C+ given the short forecast horizon and typical sea-breeze moderation. Updated model guidance expected over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,449End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Qingdao’s August 25 maximum temperature centers on model consensus for a warm summer day with highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C.** Short-range forecasts from sources including BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate a high near 30 °C under sunny or partly cloudy skies with moderate southerly breezes, while some extended 30-day outlooks project peaks of 33–34 °C amid typical late-August coastal conditions.
Qingdao’s August climatology features average daily highs of 28–31 °C (82–88 °F), with potential for brief excursions above 32 °C when high pressure suppresses cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating over the Yellow Sea region. Current conditions on August 23 show temperatures already reaching 31–32 °C, supporting the market’s tilt toward 33 °C (41 % implied probability) as the leading outcome, followed by 34 °C (23 %) and 32 °C (22.5 %).
No major synoptic systems or rapid model shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours, so probabilities remain anchored to the latest deterministic and ensemble runs, with limited upside risk for 35 °C+ given the short forecast horizon and typical sea-breeze moderation. Updated model guidance expected over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,449End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Qingdao’s August 25 maximum temperature centers on model consensus for a warm summer day with highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C.** Short-range forecasts from sources including BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate a high near 30 °C under sunny or partly cloudy skies with moderate southerly breezes, while some extended 30-day outlooks project peaks of 33–34 °C amid typical late-August coastal conditions. Qingdao’s August climatology features average daily highs of 28–31 °C (82–88 °F), with potential for brief excursions above 32 °C when high pressure suppresses cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating over the Yellow Sea region. Current conditions on August 23 show temperatures already reaching 31–32 °C, supporting the market’s tilt toward 33 °C (41 % implied probability) as the leading outcome, followed by 34 °C (23 %) and 32 °C (22.5 %). No major synoptic systems or rapid model shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours, so probabilities remain anchored to the latest deterministic and ensemble runs, with limited upside risk for 35 °C+ given the short forecast horizon and typical sea-breeze moderation. Updated model guidance expected over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any probability adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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