NWS point forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a daytime high near 75°F on August 23 under partly sunny skies and light-to-moderate onshore flow. Persistent marine layer depth and southwest winds of 5–15 mph continue advecting cool, moist Pacific air, capping temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s while limiting afternoon heating. Model consensus shows modest spread from brief clearing or slight wind shifts that could push readings toward 76–77°F or hold them at 72–73°F. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 72–75°F bins, with lower odds for extremes reflecting climatological August norms near 69°F and the stabilizing influence of coastal stratus. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will refine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 23?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 23?
74-75°F 36%
72-73°F 36%
76-77°F 18%
70-71°F 10%
$22,613 Vol.
$22,613 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
36%
74-75°F
36%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 36%
72-73°F 36%
76-77°F 18%
70-71°F 10%
$22,613 Vol.
$22,613 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
65°F or below
$2,219 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$641 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$3,351 Vol.
2%
70-71°F
$4,652 Vol.
10%
72-73°F
$4,287 Vol.
36%
74-75°F
$2,336 Vol.
36%
76-77°F
$2,464 Vol.
18%
78-79°F
$1,243 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$966 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$350 Vol.
1%
84°F or higher
$104 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.NWS point forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a daytime high near 75°F on August 23 under partly sunny skies and light-to-moderate onshore flow. Persistent marine layer depth and southwest winds of 5–15 mph continue advecting cool, moist Pacific air, capping temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s while limiting afternoon heating. Model consensus shows modest spread from brief clearing or slight wind shifts that could push readings toward 76–77°F or hold them at 72–73°F. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 72–75°F bins, with lower odds for extremes reflecting climatological August norms near 69°F and the stabilizing influence of coastal stratus. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will refine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ET
Volume
$22,613End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.NWS point forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a daytime high near 75°F on August 23 under partly sunny skies and light-to-moderate onshore flow. Persistent marine layer depth and southwest winds of 5–15 mph continue advecting cool, moist Pacific air, capping temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s while limiting afternoon heating. Model consensus shows modest spread from brief clearing or slight wind shifts that could push readings toward 76–77°F or hold them at 72–73°F. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 72–75°F bins, with lower odds for extremes reflecting climatological August norms near 69°F and the stabilizing influence of coastal stratus. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will refine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,613End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...NWS point forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a daytime high near 75°F on August 23 under partly sunny skies and light-to-moderate onshore flow. Persistent marine layer depth and southwest winds of 5–15 mph continue advecting cool, moist Pacific air, capping temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s while limiting afternoon heating. Model consensus shows modest spread from brief clearing or slight wind shifts that could push readings toward 76–77°F or hold them at 72–73°F. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 72–75°F bins, with lower odds for extremes reflecting climatological August norms near 69°F and the stabilizing influence of coastal stratus. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will refine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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