Official forecasts and real-time observations from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) indicate a daily maximum of exactly 20°C at Amsterdam measurement sites, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that outcome. Stable high-pressure conditions have suppressed temperature variability, with no significant warm or cold advection expected on August 23. Historical climatology for late August in the region shows typical maxima near 20–22°C, aligning with current model consensus. Traders assign negligible odds to deviations because official resolution relies on verified station data rather than forecasts alone. Only an unseasonal late-day spike or station anomaly could shift the result, scenarios viewed as highly improbable given the day's observed stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 23?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 23?
20°C 99.8%
21°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
$54,756 Vol.
$54,756 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
100%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 99.8%
21°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
$54,756 Vol.
$54,756 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
$128 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,017 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$17,736 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$11,864 Vol.
100%
21°C
$9,408 Vol.
1%
22°C
$7,213 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,307 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$510 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$255 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts and real-time observations from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) indicate a daily maximum of exactly 20°C at Amsterdam measurement sites, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that outcome. Stable high-pressure conditions have suppressed temperature variability, with no significant warm or cold advection expected on August 23. Historical climatology for late August in the region shows typical maxima near 20–22°C, aligning with current model consensus. Traders assign negligible odds to deviations because official resolution relies on verified station data rather than forecasts alone. Only an unseasonal late-day spike or station anomaly could shift the result, scenarios viewed as highly improbable given the day's observed stability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$54,756End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts and real-time observations from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) indicate a daily maximum of exactly 20°C at Amsterdam measurement sites, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that outcome. Stable high-pressure conditions have suppressed temperature variability, with no significant warm or cold advection expected on August 23. Historical climatology for late August in the region shows typical maxima near 20–22°C, aligning with current model consensus. Traders assign negligible odds to deviations because official resolution relies on verified station data rather than forecasts alone. Only an unseasonal late-day spike or station anomaly could shift the result, scenarios viewed as highly improbable given the day's observed stability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54,756End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts and real-time observations from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) indicate a daily maximum of exactly 20°C at Amsterdam measurement sites, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that outcome. Stable high-pressure conditions have suppressed temperature variability, with no significant warm or cold advection expected on August 23. Historical climatology for late August in the region shows typical maxima near 20–22°C, aligning with current model consensus. Traders assign negligible odds to deviations because official resolution relies on verified station data rather than forecasts alone. Only an unseasonal late-day spike or station anomaly could shift the result, scenarios viewed as highly improbable given the day's observed stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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