Numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and German Weather Service (DWD) models currently indicate a maximum temperature of 22–23°C for Munich on August 23, 2026, aligning closely with the market's overwhelming 99.3% implied probability on the 23°C outcome. This positioning reflects late-summer cooling trends, with daily highs declining from seasonal peaks near 25°C earlier in August toward averages around 22–23°C by month's end, reinforced by recent observations of 21°C on August 22. Key variables include stable high-pressure patterns and limited cloud cover that limit further warming, though minor forecast revisions from updated model runs could still shift the precise high within a narrow range. Traders assign negligible odds to extremes because climatological baselines and ensemble consensus show low variability around this threshold on the resolution day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 23?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 23?
23°C 99.0%
24°C 1.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
$78,169 Vol.
$78,169 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
99%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
23°C 99.0%
24°C 1.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
$78,169 Vol.
$78,169 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
16°C or below
$6,861 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$426 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$345 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5,150 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$4,635 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$10,615 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$14,774 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$11,006 Vol.
99%
24°C
$9,409 Vol.
1%
25°C
$10,044 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$4,904 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and German Weather Service (DWD) models currently indicate a maximum temperature of 22–23°C for Munich on August 23, 2026, aligning closely with the market's overwhelming 99.3% implied probability on the 23°C outcome. This positioning reflects late-summer cooling trends, with daily highs declining from seasonal peaks near 25°C earlier in August toward averages around 22–23°C by month's end, reinforced by recent observations of 21°C on August 22. Key variables include stable high-pressure patterns and limited cloud cover that limit further warming, though minor forecast revisions from updated model runs could still shift the precise high within a narrow range. Traders assign negligible odds to extremes because climatological baselines and ensemble consensus show low variability around this threshold on the resolution day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$78,169End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and German Weather Service (DWD) models currently indicate a maximum temperature of 22–23°C for Munich on August 23, 2026, aligning closely with the market's overwhelming 99.3% implied probability on the 23°C outcome. This positioning reflects late-summer cooling trends, with daily highs declining from seasonal peaks near 25°C earlier in August toward averages around 22–23°C by month's end, reinforced by recent observations of 21°C on August 22. Key variables include stable high-pressure patterns and limited cloud cover that limit further warming, though minor forecast revisions from updated model runs could still shift the precise high within a narrow range. Traders assign negligible odds to extremes because climatological baselines and ensemble consensus show low variability around this threshold on the resolution day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$78,169End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and German Weather Service (DWD) models currently indicate a maximum temperature of 22–23°C for Munich on August 23, 2026, aligning closely with the market's overwhelming 99.3% implied probability on the 23°C outcome. This positioning reflects late-summer cooling trends, with daily highs declining from seasonal peaks near 25°C earlier in August toward averages around 22–23°C by month's end, reinforced by recent observations of 21°C on August 22. Key variables include stable high-pressure patterns and limited cloud cover that limit further warming, though minor forecast revisions from updated model runs could still shift the precise high within a narrow range. Traders assign negligible odds to extremes because climatological baselines and ensemble consensus show low variability around this threshold on the resolution day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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