Strong model consensus and real-time observations from official monitoring stations support the near-certain market-implied odds for a 28°C daily maximum in Istanbul on August 23. Recent forecast runs from global and regional models show stable high pressure, northeast winds, and mostly sunny conditions limiting afternoon heating near the seasonal norm of roughly 29°C, with minimal cloud cover or moisture to alter the peak. The market's overwhelming positioning reflects traders' confidence in these consistent signals and the resolution criteria tied to verified station data, rather than broader ranges. A shift in steering flow or unexpected marine layer development could still nudge readings by 1–2°C, though current evidence makes such changes unlikely before the close of the observation period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$38,029 Vol.
$38,029 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$38,029 Vol.
$38,029 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
23°C or below
$455 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,688 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$858 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$6,981 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$8,368 Vol.
100%
29°C
$7,771 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,183 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,695 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$3,157 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$1,793 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus and real-time observations from official monitoring stations support the near-certain market-implied odds for a 28°C daily maximum in Istanbul on August 23. Recent forecast runs from global and regional models show stable high pressure, northeast winds, and mostly sunny conditions limiting afternoon heating near the seasonal norm of roughly 29°C, with minimal cloud cover or moisture to alter the peak. The market's overwhelming positioning reflects traders' confidence in these consistent signals and the resolution criteria tied to verified station data, rather than broader ranges. A shift in steering flow or unexpected marine layer development could still nudge readings by 1–2°C, though current evidence makes such changes unlikely before the close of the observation period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$38,029End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus and real-time observations from official monitoring stations support the near-certain market-implied odds for a 28°C daily maximum in Istanbul on August 23. Recent forecast runs from global and regional models show stable high pressure, northeast winds, and mostly sunny conditions limiting afternoon heating near the seasonal norm of roughly 29°C, with minimal cloud cover or moisture to alter the peak. The market's overwhelming positioning reflects traders' confidence in these consistent signals and the resolution criteria tied to verified station data, rather than broader ranges. A shift in steering flow or unexpected marine layer development could still nudge readings by 1–2°C, though current evidence makes such changes unlikely before the close of the observation period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,029End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong model consensus and real-time observations from official monitoring stations support the near-certain market-implied odds for a 28°C daily maximum in Istanbul on August 23. Recent forecast runs from global and regional models show stable high pressure, northeast winds, and mostly sunny conditions limiting afternoon heating near the seasonal norm of roughly 29°C, with minimal cloud cover or moisture to alter the peak. The market's overwhelming positioning reflects traders' confidence in these consistent signals and the resolution criteria tied to verified station data, rather than broader ranges. A shift in steering flow or unexpected marine layer development could still nudge readings by 1–2°C, though current evidence makes such changes unlikely before the close of the observation period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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