Recent forecasts from meteorological models place Chengdu’s August 25 maximum near 34–36 °C under typical late-summer subtropical conditions, with scattered showers and moderate humidity limiting extreme heating. This distribution underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35–37 °C, as traders weigh ensemble guidance showing modest day-to-day variability and the influence of regional pressure patterns on peak readings recorded at the Shuangliu station. Historical August maxima average 30–34 °C, yet brief clear-sky periods can add 1–2 °C, explaining the spread to 38 °C and the low probability assigned to 40 °C or higher. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
36°C 30%
35°C 24%
37°C 20%
34°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
3%
33°C
5%
34°C
13%
35°C
24%
36°C
30%
37°C
20%
38°C
6%
39°C
4%
40°C or higher
2%
36°C 30%
35°C 24%
37°C 20%
34°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
$221 Vol.
1%
31°C
$20 Vol.
2%
32°C
$71 Vol.
3%
33°C
$24 Vol.
5%
34°C
$0 Vol.
13%
35°C
$42 Vol.
24%
36°C
$694 Vol.
30%
37°C
$200 Vol.
20%
38°C
$197 Vol.
6%
39°C
$108 Vol.
4%
40°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models place Chengdu’s August 25 maximum near 34–36 °C under typical late-summer subtropical conditions, with scattered showers and moderate humidity limiting extreme heating. This distribution underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35–37 °C, as traders weigh ensemble guidance showing modest day-to-day variability and the influence of regional pressure patterns on peak readings recorded at the Shuangliu station. Historical August maxima average 30–34 °C, yet brief clear-sky periods can add 1–2 °C, explaining the spread to 38 °C and the low probability assigned to 40 °C or higher. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,583End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models place Chengdu’s August 25 maximum near 34–36 °C under typical late-summer subtropical conditions, with scattered showers and moderate humidity limiting extreme heating. This distribution underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35–37 °C, as traders weigh ensemble guidance showing modest day-to-day variability and the influence of regional pressure patterns on peak readings recorded at the Shuangliu station. Historical August maxima average 30–34 °C, yet brief clear-sky periods can add 1–2 °C, explaining the spread to 38 °C and the low probability assigned to 40 °C or higher. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,583End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological models place Chengdu’s August 25 maximum near 34–36 °C under typical late-summer subtropical conditions, with scattered showers and moderate humidity limiting extreme heating. This distribution underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35–37 °C, as traders weigh ensemble guidance showing modest day-to-day variability and the influence of regional pressure patterns on peak readings recorded at the Shuangliu station. Historical August maxima average 30–34 °C, yet brief clear-sky periods can add 1–2 °C, explaining the spread to 38 °C and the low probability assigned to 40 °C or higher. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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