Current short-range forecasts from European and global models converge on a maximum temperature of 22–23 °C for Warsaw on August 25, reflecting a stable late-summer air mass under weak high pressure with limited cloud cover and light northeasterly flow. Ensemble spreads at this two-day lead time typically remain within 1–2 °C, driven by small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, surface solar heating, and any subtle frontal timing. Historical August climatology centers near 22–23 °C, providing additional context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 43 % for 22 °C and 34 % for 23 °C. Traders monitor the next model runs and official Polish Institute of Meteorology updates for any shifts in these variables before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 25?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 25?
22°C 43%
23°C 34%
24°C 10%
21°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
9%
22°C
43%
23°C
34%
24°C
10%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C or higher
2%
22°C 43%
23°C 34%
24°C 10%
21°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
17°C or below
$152 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$62 Vol.
1%
19°C
$45 Vol.
2%
20°C
$102 Vol.
5%
21°C
$0 Vol.
9%
22°C
$24 Vol.
43%
23°C
$141 Vol.
34%
24°C
$10 Vol.
10%
25°C
$5 Vol.
2%
26°C
$55 Vol.
4%
27°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from European and global models converge on a maximum temperature of 22–23 °C for Warsaw on August 25, reflecting a stable late-summer air mass under weak high pressure with limited cloud cover and light northeasterly flow. Ensemble spreads at this two-day lead time typically remain within 1–2 °C, driven by small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, surface solar heating, and any subtle frontal timing. Historical August climatology centers near 22–23 °C, providing additional context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 43 % for 22 °C and 34 % for 23 °C. Traders monitor the next model runs and official Polish Institute of Meteorology updates for any shifts in these variables before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$601End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from European and global models converge on a maximum temperature of 22–23 °C for Warsaw on August 25, reflecting a stable late-summer air mass under weak high pressure with limited cloud cover and light northeasterly flow. Ensemble spreads at this two-day lead time typically remain within 1–2 °C, driven by small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, surface solar heating, and any subtle frontal timing. Historical August climatology centers near 22–23 °C, providing additional context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 43 % for 22 °C and 34 % for 23 °C. Traders monitor the next model runs and official Polish Institute of Meteorology updates for any shifts in these variables before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$601End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from European and global models converge on a maximum temperature of 22–23 °C for Warsaw on August 25, reflecting a stable late-summer air mass under weak high pressure with limited cloud cover and light northeasterly flow. Ensemble spreads at this two-day lead time typically remain within 1–2 °C, driven by small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, surface solar heating, and any subtle frontal timing. Historical August climatology centers near 22–23 °C, providing additional context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 43 % for 22 °C and 34 % for 23 °C. Traders monitor the next model runs and official Polish Institute of Meteorology updates for any shifts in these variables before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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