Recent model consensus from sources like the National Center for Meteorology points to typical late-August conditions in Jeddah, with peak temperatures near 38°C driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light northwesterly winds that limit extreme heating despite high humidity from the Red Sea. This positions 38°C as the leading market outcome at 35.5% implied probability, followed closely by 39°C, reflecting narrow uncertainty in forecast spreads between major models. Historical August averages hover around 37–38°C, with small daily differences hinging on sea-breeze timing or slight moisture variations that can suppress or enhance afternoon maxima by 1°C. Updated NCM and ECMWF runs ahead of August 25 will likely refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jeddah on August 25?
Highest temperature in Jeddah on August 25?
38°C 36%
39°C 27%
37°C 19%
40°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
4%
35°C
5%
36°C
7%
37°C
19%
38°C
36%
39°C
27%
40°C or higher
15%
38°C 36%
39°C 27%
37°C 19%
40°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
$29 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$29 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$29 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$41 Vol.
2%
34°C
$34 Vol.
4%
35°C
$16 Vol.
5%
36°C
$0 Vol.
7%
37°C
$10 Vol.
19%
38°C
$110 Vol.
36%
39°C
$61 Vol.
27%
40°C or higher
$65 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the National Center for Meteorology points to typical late-August conditions in Jeddah, with peak temperatures near 38°C driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light northwesterly winds that limit extreme heating despite high humidity from the Red Sea. This positions 38°C as the leading market outcome at 35.5% implied probability, followed closely by 39°C, reflecting narrow uncertainty in forecast spreads between major models. Historical August averages hover around 37–38°C, with small daily differences hinging on sea-breeze timing or slight moisture variations that can suppress or enhance afternoon maxima by 1°C. Updated NCM and ECMWF runs ahead of August 25 will likely refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$425End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the National Center for Meteorology points to typical late-August conditions in Jeddah, with peak temperatures near 38°C driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light northwesterly winds that limit extreme heating despite high humidity from the Red Sea. This positions 38°C as the leading market outcome at 35.5% implied probability, followed closely by 39°C, reflecting narrow uncertainty in forecast spreads between major models. Historical August averages hover around 37–38°C, with small daily differences hinging on sea-breeze timing or slight moisture variations that can suppress or enhance afternoon maxima by 1°C. Updated NCM and ECMWF runs ahead of August 25 will likely refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$425End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like the National Center for Meteorology points to typical late-August conditions in Jeddah, with peak temperatures near 38°C driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light northwesterly winds that limit extreme heating despite high humidity from the Red Sea. This positions 38°C as the leading market outcome at 35.5% implied probability, followed closely by 39°C, reflecting narrow uncertainty in forecast spreads between major models. Historical August averages hover around 37–38°C, with small daily differences hinging on sea-breeze timing or slight moisture variations that can suppress or enhance afternoon maxima by 1°C. Updated NCM and ECMWF runs ahead of August 25 will likely refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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