Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS indicates partly cloudy conditions with southwest winds moderating peak temperatures in Madrid on August 25 to the 27–28°C range, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Persistent cloud cover and a shift from recent clearer, warmer patterns have reduced daytime heating compared to the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. This setup favors the 28°C outcome as traders weigh ensemble guidance and typical late-August variability, where small changes in humidity or wind could adjust maxima by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official observations closer to the date will likely refine these odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
28°C 44%
29°C 29%
27°C 19%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
19%
28°C
44%
29°C
29%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 44%
29°C 29%
27°C 19%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
$174 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
5%
27°C
$175 Vol.
19%
28°C
$148 Vol.
44%
29°C
$176 Vol.
29%
30°C
$18 Vol.
6%
31°C
$20 Vol.
2%
32°C
$46 Vol.
1%
33°C
$5 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS indicates partly cloudy conditions with southwest winds moderating peak temperatures in Madrid on August 25 to the 27–28°C range, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Persistent cloud cover and a shift from recent clearer, warmer patterns have reduced daytime heating compared to the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. This setup favors the 28°C outcome as traders weigh ensemble guidance and typical late-August variability, where small changes in humidity or wind could adjust maxima by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official observations closer to the date will likely refine these odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$897End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS indicates partly cloudy conditions with southwest winds moderating peak temperatures in Madrid on August 25 to the 27–28°C range, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Persistent cloud cover and a shift from recent clearer, warmer patterns have reduced daytime heating compared to the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. This setup favors the 28°C outcome as traders weigh ensemble guidance and typical late-August variability, where small changes in humidity or wind could adjust maxima by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official observations closer to the date will likely refine these odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$897End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS indicates partly cloudy conditions with southwest winds moderating peak temperatures in Madrid on August 25 to the 27–28°C range, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Persistent cloud cover and a shift from recent clearer, warmer patterns have reduced daytime heating compared to the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. This setup favors the 28°C outcome as traders weigh ensemble guidance and typical late-August variability, where small changes in humidity or wind could adjust maxima by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official observations closer to the date will likely refine these odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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