Forecast models from sources like GFS show Madrid experiencing a cooling trend into late August, with southwest winds, increasing cloud cover, and reduced daytime heating expected to limit overnight radiative cooling on August 25. This supports consensus lows of 17–19°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 16–18°C outcomes (over 87% combined implied probability). Historical August averages near 18.6°C provide context, while recent observed minima (around 20°C) and model spreads introduce modest uncertainty from variable cloud thickness and wind speeds. Upcoming ensemble runs and AEMET updates will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
25°C or higher 50%
18°C 32%
17°C 30%
16°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
8%
16°C
25%
17°C
30%
18°C
32%
19°C
11%
20°C
8%
21°C
9%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
50%
25°C or higher 50%
18°C 32%
17°C 30%
16°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$0 Vol.
32%
19°C
$0 Vol.
11%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C
$4 Vol.
9%
22°C
$15 Vol.
1%
23°C
$205 Vol.
1%
24°C
$438 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$30 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS show Madrid experiencing a cooling trend into late August, with southwest winds, increasing cloud cover, and reduced daytime heating expected to limit overnight radiative cooling on August 25. This supports consensus lows of 17–19°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 16–18°C outcomes (over 87% combined implied probability). Historical August averages near 18.6°C provide context, while recent observed minima (around 20°C) and model spreads introduce modest uncertainty from variable cloud thickness and wind speeds. Upcoming ensemble runs and AEMET updates will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$692End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS show Madrid experiencing a cooling trend into late August, with southwest winds, increasing cloud cover, and reduced daytime heating expected to limit overnight radiative cooling on August 25. This supports consensus lows of 17–19°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 16–18°C outcomes (over 87% combined implied probability). Historical August averages near 18.6°C provide context, while recent observed minima (around 20°C) and model spreads introduce modest uncertainty from variable cloud thickness and wind speeds. Upcoming ensemble runs and AEMET updates will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$692End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like GFS show Madrid experiencing a cooling trend into late August, with southwest winds, increasing cloud cover, and reduced daytime heating expected to limit overnight radiative cooling on August 25. This supports consensus lows of 17–19°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 16–18°C outcomes (over 87% combined implied probability). Historical August averages near 18.6°C provide context, while recent observed minima (around 20°C) and model spreads introduce modest uncertainty from variable cloud thickness and wind speeds. Upcoming ensemble runs and AEMET updates will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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