Official short-range forecasts from AEMET and supporting model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on August 24 will likely fall to 17–19°C, driven by cooler Atlantic air advection and increased cloud cover that suppresses radiative cooling less than typical clear summer nights. This aligns with AEMET’s recent outlook for the week of 24–30 August, which projects temperatures below seasonal normals across much of the peninsula, particularly the western and central regions. Ensemble spreads from sources such as ECMWF show limited divergence around these values, with historical August minima rarely dipping below 16°C but current synoptic patterns favoring the lower end. Traders assign 73% implied probability to 18°C or below as fresh model runs reinforce this range ahead of overnight observations that will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
18°C or below 81%
19°C 17%
20°C 13%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
73%
19°C
17%
20°C
13%
21°C
6%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
18°C or below 81%
19°C 17%
20°C 13%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
$3 Vol.
73%
19°C
$5 Vol.
17%
20°C
$7 Vol.
13%
21°C
$196 Vol.
6%
22°C
$87 Vol.
2%
23°C
$448 Vol.
1%
24°C
$150 Vol.
1%
25°C
$521 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$115 Vol.
1%
27°C
$134 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$211 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official short-range forecasts from AEMET and supporting model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on August 24 will likely fall to 17–19°C, driven by cooler Atlantic air advection and increased cloud cover that suppresses radiative cooling less than typical clear summer nights. This aligns with AEMET’s recent outlook for the week of 24–30 August, which projects temperatures below seasonal normals across much of the peninsula, particularly the western and central regions. Ensemble spreads from sources such as ECMWF show limited divergence around these values, with historical August minima rarely dipping below 16°C but current synoptic patterns favoring the lower end. Traders assign 73% implied probability to 18°C or below as fresh model runs reinforce this range ahead of overnight observations that will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,878End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official short-range forecasts from AEMET and supporting model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on August 24 will likely fall to 17–19°C, driven by cooler Atlantic air advection and increased cloud cover that suppresses radiative cooling less than typical clear summer nights. This aligns with AEMET’s recent outlook for the week of 24–30 August, which projects temperatures below seasonal normals across much of the peninsula, particularly the western and central regions. Ensemble spreads from sources such as ECMWF show limited divergence around these values, with historical August minima rarely dipping below 16°C but current synoptic patterns favoring the lower end. Traders assign 73% implied probability to 18°C or below as fresh model runs reinforce this range ahead of overnight observations that will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,878End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official short-range forecasts from AEMET and supporting model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on August 24 will likely fall to 17–19°C, driven by cooler Atlantic air advection and increased cloud cover that suppresses radiative cooling less than typical clear summer nights. This aligns with AEMET’s recent outlook for the week of 24–30 August, which projects temperatures below seasonal normals across much of the peninsula, particularly the western and central regions. Ensemble spreads from sources such as ECMWF show limited divergence around these values, with historical August minima rarely dipping below 16°C but current synoptic patterns favoring the lower end. Traders assign 73% implied probability to 18°C or below as fresh model runs reinforce this range ahead of overnight observations that will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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