Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to peak temperatures reaching 33°C at Beijing stations on August 23, driven by warm southerly advection under partly cloudy skies with limited convective cooling. High humidity (70–85%) and scattered thunderstorms are moderating further warming, aligning with late-August climatology where daily maxima average near 31–32°C but can edge higher absent heavy rain or stronger winds. This evidence underpins the market's 100% implied probability for the 33°C outcome. A rapid increase in cloud cover, earlier or heavier precipitation, or unexpected northerly flow could cap readings at 32°C or below and shift resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 23?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 23?
33°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$55,231 Vol.
$55,231 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$55,231 Vol.
$55,231 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
27°C or below
$2,010 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,642 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,368 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,626 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,593 Vol.
No
32°C
$15,975 Vol.
No
33°C
$4,466 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$4,917 Vol.
No
35°C
$4,485 Vol.
No
36°C
$2,069 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$1,082 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to peak temperatures reaching 33°C at Beijing stations on August 23, driven by warm southerly advection under partly cloudy skies with limited convective cooling. High humidity (70–85%) and scattered thunderstorms are moderating further warming, aligning with late-August climatology where daily maxima average near 31–32°C but can edge higher absent heavy rain or stronger winds. This evidence underpins the market's 100% implied probability for the 33°C outcome. A rapid increase in cloud cover, earlier or heavier precipitation, or unexpected northerly flow could cap readings at 32°C or below and shift resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$55,231End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to peak temperatures reaching 33°C at Beijing stations on August 23, driven by warm southerly advection under partly cloudy skies with limited convective cooling. High humidity (70–85%) and scattered thunderstorms are moderating further warming, aligning with late-August climatology where daily maxima average near 31–32°C but can edge higher absent heavy rain or stronger winds. This evidence underpins the market's 100% implied probability for the 33°C outcome. A rapid increase in cloud cover, earlier or heavier precipitation, or unexpected northerly flow could cap readings at 32°C or below and shift resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$55,231End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to peak temperatures reaching 33°C at Beijing stations on August 23, driven by warm southerly advection under partly cloudy skies with limited convective cooling. High humidity (70–85%) and scattered thunderstorms are moderating further warming, aligning with late-August climatology where daily maxima average near 31–32°C but can edge higher absent heavy rain or stronger winds. This evidence underpins the market's 100% implied probability for the 33°C outcome. A rapid increase in cloud cover, earlier or heavier precipitation, or unexpected northerly flow could cap readings at 32°C or below and shift resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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