Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources converge on a daytime high of 32–34°C for Beijing on August 24, driven by clearing skies after overnight showers on the 23rd, light southeast winds, and subsidence under a strengthening ridge that favors strong diurnal heating. Official outlooks list 33°C as the most likely maximum, consistent with the market’s leading 33°C share (34.5%) and nearby 32°C/34°C probabilities. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on precise timing of any residual cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification at official stations; minor shifts in insolation or advection can easily swing the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August 24 averages near 30°C with a record of 33.9°C provide climatological context, but current conditions support the market-implied clustering around the upper end of the typical range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 24?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 24?
33°C 35%
32°C 25%
34°C 16%
31°C 15%
NEW
$10,617 Vol.
NEW
$10,617 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
6%
31°C
15%
32°C
25%
33°C
35%
34°C
16%
35°C
4%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 35%
32°C 25%
34°C 16%
31°C 15%
NEW
$10,617 Vol.
NEW
$10,617 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
27°C or below
$739 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$379 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$79 Vol.
1%
30°C
$761 Vol.
6%
31°C
$938 Vol.
15%
32°C
$1,259 Vol.
25%
33°C
$1,002 Vol.
35%
34°C
$2,727 Vol.
16%
35°C
$1,210 Vol.
4%
36°C
$865 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$657 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources converge on a daytime high of 32–34°C for Beijing on August 24, driven by clearing skies after overnight showers on the 23rd, light southeast winds, and subsidence under a strengthening ridge that favors strong diurnal heating. Official outlooks list 33°C as the most likely maximum, consistent with the market’s leading 33°C share (34.5%) and nearby 32°C/34°C probabilities. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on precise timing of any residual cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification at official stations; minor shifts in insolation or advection can easily swing the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August 24 averages near 30°C with a record of 33.9°C provide climatological context, but current conditions support the market-implied clustering around the upper end of the typical range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$10,617End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources converge on a daytime high of 32–34°C for Beijing on August 24, driven by clearing skies after overnight showers on the 23rd, light southeast winds, and subsidence under a strengthening ridge that favors strong diurnal heating. Official outlooks list 33°C as the most likely maximum, consistent with the market’s leading 33°C share (34.5%) and nearby 32°C/34°C probabilities. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on precise timing of any residual cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification at official stations; minor shifts in insolation or advection can easily swing the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August 24 averages near 30°C with a record of 33.9°C provide climatological context, but current conditions support the market-implied clustering around the upper end of the typical range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,617End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources converge on a daytime high of 32–34°C for Beijing on August 24, driven by clearing skies after overnight showers on the 23rd, light southeast winds, and subsidence under a strengthening ridge that favors strong diurnal heating. Official outlooks list 33°C as the most likely maximum, consistent with the market’s leading 33°C share (34.5%) and nearby 32°C/34°C probabilities. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on precise timing of any residual cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification at official stations; minor shifts in insolation or advection can easily swing the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August 24 averages near 30°C with a record of 33.9°C provide climatological context, but current conditions support the market-implied clustering around the upper end of the typical range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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