Beijing's late-August conditions typically feature highs near 31°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, strong solar heating, and elevated humidity from lingering East Asian monsoon moisture. Current model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and BBC indicates a 31–33°C range for August 25, with thundery showers and cloud cover the key variables: persistent convection and evaporative cooling favor the lower end near 31°C, while any breaks in cloudiness or enhanced warm advection could briefly reach 32–33°C at the official station. The tight clustering of market probabilities around these outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty two days ahead, with resolution hinging on the timing and intensity of any precipitation and the precise maximum recorded before 24:00 local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
32°C 30%
31°C 24%
33°C 24%
34°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
6%
30°C
6%
31°C
24%
32°C
30%
33°C
24%
34°C
6%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 30%
31°C 24%
33°C 24%
34°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
$105 Vol.
1%
27°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$118 Vol.
2%
29°C
$23 Vol.
6%
30°C
$141 Vol.
6%
31°C
$30 Vol.
24%
32°C
$45 Vol.
30%
33°C
$82 Vol.
24%
34°C
$129 Vol.
6%
35°C
$10 Vol.
4%
36°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing's late-August conditions typically feature highs near 31°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, strong solar heating, and elevated humidity from lingering East Asian monsoon moisture. Current model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and BBC indicates a 31–33°C range for August 25, with thundery showers and cloud cover the key variables: persistent convection and evaporative cooling favor the lower end near 31°C, while any breaks in cloudiness or enhanced warm advection could briefly reach 32–33°C at the official station. The tight clustering of market probabilities around these outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty two days ahead, with resolution hinging on the timing and intensity of any precipitation and the precise maximum recorded before 24:00 local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$774End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing's late-August conditions typically feature highs near 31°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, strong solar heating, and elevated humidity from lingering East Asian monsoon moisture. Current model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and BBC indicates a 31–33°C range for August 25, with thundery showers and cloud cover the key variables: persistent convection and evaporative cooling favor the lower end near 31°C, while any breaks in cloudiness or enhanced warm advection could briefly reach 32–33°C at the official station. The tight clustering of market probabilities around these outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty two days ahead, with resolution hinging on the timing and intensity of any precipitation and the precise maximum recorded before 24:00 local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$774End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Beijing's late-August conditions typically feature highs near 31°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, strong solar heating, and elevated humidity from lingering East Asian monsoon moisture. Current model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and BBC indicates a 31–33°C range for August 25, with thundery showers and cloud cover the key variables: persistent convection and evaporative cooling favor the lower end near 31°C, while any breaks in cloudiness or enhanced warm advection could briefly reach 32–33°C at the official station. The tight clustering of market probabilities around these outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty two days ahead, with resolution hinging on the timing and intensity of any precipitation and the precise maximum recorded before 24:00 local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions